Aave signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily AAVE candle since 15 Oct 2020 (2,222 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 10 signals did no better than picking days at random.
AAVE price · last close$100.714 Nov 2026 close: $100.7 (7d −23.6%)
RSI (14)26.6under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.04×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume47.6%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−85%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 18 | 61% | +7.7% | −0.1% | 33% | 48 | Weak evidence | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 14 | 36% | −8.9% | −0.1% | 29% | 47 | Weak evidence | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 60 | 53% | +0.3% | −0.1% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 20 | 70% | +4.7% | −0.1% | 60% | 44 | Weak evidence | 23 Aug 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 18 | 28% | −4.7% | −0.1% | 63% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 15 | 27% | −3.1% | −0.1% | 82% | 38 | Weak evidence | 24 Aug 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 12 | 58% | +2.6% | −0.1% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 58 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.1% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 22 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 45 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.1% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 58 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 36 | 47% | −0.2% | −0.1% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 28 | 57% | +2.1% | −0.1% | 82% | 18 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 31 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 92% | 18 | No better than chance | 22 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 31 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.1% | 96% | 17 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 29 | 45% | −0.4% | −0.1% | 98% | 15 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 19 | 63% | +2.4% | −0.1% | 85% | 14 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 17 | 35% | −1.5% | −0.1% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance | 7 May 2026 |
| Golden cross | 6 | 50% | −1.0% | −0.1% | 87% | Too few cases | 26 Aug 2026 | |
| Death cross | 6 | 33% | −3.9% | −0.1% | 50% | Too few cases | 31 Oct 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 7 days | 63 | 62% | +3.7% | −0.1% | 42% | 52 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 40 | 55% | +3.6% | −0.1% | 57% | 52 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 149 | 56% | +1.8% | −0.1% | 59% | 48 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 106 | 56% | +1.4% | −0.1% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 43 | 47% | −1.5% | −0.1% | 87% | 48 | Weak evidence | 6 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 147 | 47% | −0.9% | −0.1% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 93 | 43% | −1.1% | −0.1% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 114 | 46% | −1.0% | −0.1% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 90 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 45 | 53% | +0.8% | −0.1% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 57 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.1% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 16 | 69% | +6.5% | −0.1% | 47% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 28 | 54% | +2.9% | −0.1% | 74% | 19 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 34 | 44% | −0.3% | −0.1% | 98% | 17 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 27 | 44% | −0.3% | −0.1% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 12 | 58% | +3.5% | −0.1% | 80% | 12 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 16 | 44% | −2.3% | −0.1% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance | 19 Apr 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 11 | 45% | −1.6% | −0.1% | 94% | 8 | No better than chance | 20 Dec 2024 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 9 | 56% | +4.8% | −0.1% | 34% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 4 | 75% | +10.8% | −0.1% | 12% | Too few cases | 20 May 2022 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 9 | 44% | −3.7% | −0.1% | 48% | Too few cases | 23 Aug 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 42% | −2.0% | −0.1% | 74% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 12 | 25% | −9.3% | −0.1% | 33% | 46 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 64% | +0.5% | −0.1% | 98% | 32 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 75 | 51% | +0.2% | −0.1% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $129.2 | +1.3% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $119.4 | +8.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $119.4 | +8.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $135.9 | −6.8% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $146.8 | −18.7% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $146.8 | −18.7% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.