Hedera volatility and risk: how violent it has been
2,603 daily moves since 29 Sep 2019. On a typical day HBAR moves 2.5% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 7.8%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −93%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2020 | −46.4% | $0.02576 | +58.3% | +27.3% |
| 19 May 2021 | −36.2% | $0.2147 | +27.3% | −3.5% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −22.8% | $0.1644 | −1.1% | +7.5% |
| 11 May 2022 | −20.4% | $0.09140 | +8.5% | −11.3% |
| 24 Apr 2024 | −20.2% | $0.1248 | −20.2% | −13.4% |
| 13 Feb 2020 | −19.0% | $0.05548 | −16.8% | −27.5% |
| 23 Dec 2020 | −18.3% | $0.03015 | +7.8% | +222.3% |
| 9 May 2022 | −16.9% | $0.1062 | −3.8% | −17.2% |
| 9 Jan 2021 | −16.7% | $0.05074 | +17.3% | +97.4% |
| 29 Sep 2026 | −16.1% | $0.1024 | −2.7% | −32.6% |
After these 10 falls, HBAR was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 4 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 48 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2020 | +101.7% | $0.06851 | −32.4% | −48.9% |
| 11 Feb 2020 | +79.3% | $0.03397 | +49.6% | −24.2% |
| 23 Apr 2024 | +72.9% | $0.1563 | −40.0% | −30.3% |
| 18 Nov 2024 | +59.9% | $0.1443 | −6.6% | +88.8% |
| 8 Jan 2021 | +59.3% | $0.06091 | −9.5% | +58.8% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | +49.3% | $0.3115 | −10.1% | −5.4% |
| 20 Jan 2021 | +40.3% | $0.1006 | −21.0% | +51.5% |
| 13 May 2021 | +39.4% | $0.3344 | −17.9% | −43.4% |
| 13 Mar 2020 | +35.9% | $0.03500 | +8.9% | −5.4% |
| 14 Mar 2021 | +30.9% | $0.3634 | −6.0% | +12.9% |
After these 10 gains, HBAR was higher a week later in 2 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 4 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 62 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Hedera and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days HBAR has moved closely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.66, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, HBAR moved about 1.03% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.52 | 1.06% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.66 | 1.03% |
| All shared history | 2,603 | 0.50 | 1.04% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 2,603 days both pairs traded. What HBAR did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.