Hedera signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily HBAR candle since 29 Sep 2019 (2,604 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 8 signals did no better than picking days at random.
HBAR price · last close$0.0562814 Nov 2026 close: $0.05628 (7d −16.2%)
RSI (14)21.7under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.27×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.8%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−90%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 23 | 57% | +9.0% | −1.2% | 5.1% | 66 | Some evidence · leans up | 28 Sep 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 35 | 54% | +4.0% | −1.2% | 22% | 59 | Some evidence · leans up | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 43 | 30% | −4.7% | −1.2% | 41% | 52 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 30 | 53% | +2.9% | −1.2% | 43% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 62 | 42% | −2.7% | −1.2% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 64 | 48% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 34 | 50% | −0.4% | −1.2% | 94% | 44 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 28 | 54% | +0.7% | −1.2% | 80% | 43 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 29 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 94% | 41 | Weak evidence | 29 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 36 | 53% | +0.7% | −1.2% | 78% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 70 | 43% | −0.6% | −1.2% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 13 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 48 | 46% | −0.7% | −1.2% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 46 | 46% | −1.3% | −1.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 37 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.2% | 97% | 19 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 22 | 36% | −2.7% | −1.2% | 88% | 14 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 23 | 43% | −0.8% | −1.2% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance | 5 May 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 17 | 35% | −1.1% | −1.2% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 7 | 43% | −2.4% | −1.2% | 80% | Too few cases | 3 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 7 | 29% | −3.6% | −1.2% | 59% | Too few cases | 2 Nov 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% rise in 30 days | 45 | 56% | +4.3% | −1.2% | 12% | 83 | Strong evidence · leans up | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 111 | 37% | −4.0% | −1.2% | 25% | 51 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 166 | 42% | −2.0% | −1.2% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 70 | 49% | 0.0% | −1.2% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 48 | 44% | −1.9% | −1.2% | 93% | 47 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 106 | 47% | −0.7% | −1.2% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 160 | 47% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 96% | 45 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 14 | 50% | +1.9% | −1.2% | 77% | 39 | Weak evidence | 13 Jul 2025 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 38 | 45% | −3.9% | −1.2% | 60% | 25 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 49 | 41% | −3.0% | −1.2% | 75% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 41 | 41% | −2.7% | −1.2% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance | 1 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 121 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.2% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 98 | 44% | −1.4% | −1.2% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 33 | 45% | −1.7% | −1.2% | 96% | 18 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 27 | 44% | −2.3% | −1.2% | 91% | 16 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 18 | 61% | +1.6% | −1.2% | 76% | 15 | No better than chance | 24 Feb 2025 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 24 | 50% | −1.7% | −1.2% | 97% | 13 | No better than chance | 22 Jul 2025 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 16 | 50% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 15 | 40% | −1.1% | −1.2% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance | 29 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 8 | 75% | +7.7% | −1.2% | 4.6% | Too few cases | 30 Apr 2024 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 4 | 25% | −2.2% | −1.2% | 85% | Too few cases | 9 May 2022 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 91 | 52% | +0.8% | −1.2% | 58% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 74 | 41% | −1.7% | −1.2% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 13 | 62% | +5.1% | −1.2% | 43% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 17 | 53% | +3.7% | −1.2% | 52% | 19 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.06377 | open |
| 8 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.06560 | open |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.06971 | −4.1% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.07186 | −6.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.07231 | −6.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.06900 | −2.1% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.06900 | −2.1% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.07748 | −6.7% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.08394 | −10.7% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.08360 | −7.3% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.