Gitcoin volatility and risk: how violent it has been
1,983 daily moves since 10 Jun 2021. On a typical day GTC moves 3.2% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 9.8%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −100%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2022 | −30.7% | $2.36 | −5.0% | +48.0% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −27.8% | $0.2000 | +6.5% | −5.5% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | −25.8% | $5.53 | +34.7% | +6.5% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | −25.1% | $9.17 | 0.0% | −13.3% |
| 9 May 2022 | −24.9% | $3.34 | −32.1% | −6.7% |
| 11 Jun 2022 | −24.4% | $2.64 | −17.9% | −15.8% |
| 12 May 2026 | −23.0% | $0.1370 | −25.5% | −42.3% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | −22.5% | $1.03 | −17.2% | −31.4% |
| 1 Jun 2022 | −22.5% | $2.69 | +15.9% | −3.2% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −21.6% | $1.45 | +17.6% | +25.0% |
After these 10 falls, GTC was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 3 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 61 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2021 | +154.2% | $24.31 | −44.0% | −37.6% |
| 11 May 2026 | +74.5% | $0.1780 | −46.1% | −59.0% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | +55.3% | $0.2816 | +21.4% | −43.2% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | +53.4% | $0.1445 | +46.5% | +56.7% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | +52.6% | $0.1752 | +3.5% | +25.3% |
| 3 Nov 2022 | +49.9% | $2.92 | −37.9% | −37.8% |
| 13 Aug 2025 | +43.8% | $0.4500 | −25.3% | −18.9% |
| 25 Aug 2021 | +40.1% | $11.71 | +4.9% | −39.5% |
| 28 Aug 2021 | +32.5% | $13.92 | −14.9% | −52.6% |
| 24 Dec 2021 | +31.5% | $15.67 | −19.2% | −53.3% |
After these 10 gains, GTC was higher a week later in 4 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 2 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 61 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Gitcoin and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days GTC has moved only weakly with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.23, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, GTC moved about 0.83% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.09 | 0.50% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.23 | 0.83% |
| All shared history | 1,983 | 0.43 | 1.18% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 1,983 days both pairs traded. What GTC did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.