Gitcoin signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily GTC candle since 10 Jun 2021 (1,984 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 8 signals did no better than picking days at random.
GTC price · last close$0.132314 Nov 2026 close: $0.1323 (7d −19.4%)
RSI (14)33.1between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.14×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume54.0%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%above the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme buy pressure | 52 | 46% | −3.6% | −1.2% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence | 10 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 56 | 34% | −2.5% | −1.2% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 29 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 61 | 38% | −2.5% | −1.2% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence | 6 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 21 | 29% | −5.4% | −1.2% | 65% | 43 | Weak evidence | 6 Jul 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 32 | 41% | −2.5% | −1.2% | 91% | 43 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 17 | 41% | −5.0% | −1.2% | 75% | 40 | Weak evidence | 2 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 18 | 50% | +1.2% | −1.2% | 87% | 38 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 22 | 41% | −2.4% | −1.2% | 94% | 38 | Weak evidence | 3 Aug 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 52 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.2% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 61 | 44% | −1.6% | −1.2% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 39 | 44% | −1.3% | −1.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 31 | 45% | −2.0% | −1.2% | 96% | 17 | No better than chance | 6 Jun 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 20 | 40% | −4.2% | −1.2% | 79% | 15 | No better than chance | 19 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 17 | 41% | −4.3% | −1.2% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 17 | 41% | −0.7% | −1.2% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance | 7 Mar 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 13 | 46% | −2.1% | −1.2% | 97% | 8 | No better than chance | 25 Jul 2026 |
| Golden cross | 5 | 40% | 0.0% | −1.2% | 88% | Too few cases | 1 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 40% | −13.0% | −1.2% | 10% | Too few cases | 24 Oct 2025 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 9 | 67% | +19.2% | −1.2% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | 12 Oct 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% rise in 30 days | 25 | 24% | −12.6% | −1.2% | 4.6% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans down | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 23 | 26% | −13.4% | −1.2% | 5.1% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans down | 19 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 10 | 30% | −22.2% | −1.2% | 4.0% | 70 | Strong evidence · leans down | 22 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 47 | 38% | −5.8% | −1.2% | 38% | 53 | Weak evidence | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 26 | 31% | −7.3% | −1.2% | 37% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 59 | 37% | −3.0% | −1.2% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 23 | 52% | +5.4% | −1.2% | 36% | 48 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 34 | 32% | −3.9% | −1.2% | 73% | 47 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 79 | 47% | −0.3% | −1.2% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 14 | 71% | +4.4% | −1.2% | 62% | 42 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 10 | 30% | −6.5% | −1.2% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance | 25 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 28 | 36% | −6.3% | −1.2% | 48% | 23 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 106 | 46% | −2.0% | −1.2% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 100 | 39% | −2.2% | −1.2% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 58 | 48% | −0.4% | −1.2% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 100 | 46% | −1.8% | −1.2% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 19 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 148 | 47% | −1.4% | −1.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 109 | 43% | −1.2% | −1.2% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 142 | 46% | −1.3% | −1.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 19 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 22 | 41% | −5.5% | −1.2% | 63% | 18 | No better than chance | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 9 | 56% | +2.7% | −1.2% | 46% | Too few cases | 10 Jun 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 56 | 54% | +1.9% | −1.2% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 48 | 38% | −3.5% | −1.2% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 7 | 57% | 0.0% | −1.2% | 84% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 38% | −4.5% | −1.2% | 53% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.1640 | −19.4% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.1810 | −18.3% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.2391 | −6.2% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.2627 | −8.8% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | RSI rises above 70 | $0.3419 | −30.1% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.2363 | +4.4% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.