DeXe volatility and risk: how violent it has been
1,940 daily moves since 23 Jul 2021. On a typical day DEXE moves 2.3% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 8.2%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −98%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | −82.5% | $6.20 | −51.8% | −68.6% |
| 23 Jul 2026 | −62.4% | $1.67 | +41.1% | +12.8% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −50.9% | $5.48 | +21.0% | +18.2% |
| 2 Jun 2025 | −31.9% | $9.68 | −4.9% | −22.9% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −29.1% | $1.93 | +22.8% | +29.4% |
| 22 Jul 2026 | −28.5% | $4.44 | −37.9% | −54.7% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | −26.9% | $2.63 | −15.8% | −27.5% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | −26.2% | $11.98 | +3.3% | +8.2% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | −24.6% | $2.72 | −8.9% | −9.5% |
| 1 Apr 2025 | −24.2% | $13.58 | +14.5% | −3.2% |
After these 10 falls, DEXE was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 4 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 39 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2021 | +172.4% | $19.51 | −33.6% | −39.6% |
| 24 Jul 2026 | +134.5% | $3.91 | −33.3% | −51.5% |
| 25 Aug 2021 | +44.9% | $16.80 | +2.3% | −30.4% |
| 9 Nov 2023 | +44.6% | $3.68 | −8.1% | +31.5% |
| 28 Aug 2022 | +44.5% | $3.88 | −21.6% | −22.4% |
| 7 Mar 2024 | +40.7% | $10.40 | −1.9% | +42.9% |
| 25 Jul 2022 | +40.5% | $5.02 | −22.7% | −40.2% |
| 8 Aug 2021 | +39.1% | $15.43 | −18.5% | −22.4% |
| 28 Feb 2024 | +36.1% | $5.74 | +28.8% | +157.5% |
| 2 Jan 2025 | +32.3% | $19.77 | −25.6% | +6.5% |
After these 10 gains, DEXE was higher a week later in 2 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 4 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 49 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
DeXe and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days DEXE has moved hardly at all with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.12, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, DEXE moved about 0.58% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.33 | 0.66% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.12 | 0.58% |
| All shared history | 1,940 | 0.25 | 0.75% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 1,940 days both pairs traded. What DEXE did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.