DeXe signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily DEXE candle since 23 Jul 2021 (1,941 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
DEXE price · last close$1.0814 Nov 2026 close: $1.08 (7d −15.6%)
RSI (14)23under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.52×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.2%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% drop in a week | 29 | 66% | +6.3% | −0.3% | 10% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans up | 2 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 39 | 49% | −3.4% | −0.3% | 48% | 52 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 56 | 34% | −3.0% | −0.3% | 44% | 51 | Weak evidence | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 36 | 44% | −2.9% | −0.3% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence | 10 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 22 | 32% | −5.5% | −0.3% | 34% | 48 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 26 | 54% | +3.5% | −0.3% | 49% | 47 | Weak evidence | 8 Jul 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 47 | 53% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence | 23 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 18 | 33% | −5.2% | −0.3% | 42% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 27 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.3% | 90% | 41 | Weak evidence | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 22 | 55% | +0.3% | −0.3% | 96% | 37 | Weak evidence | 3 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 49 | 49% | −1.6% | −0.3% | 80% | 23 | No better than chance | 28 Aug 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 18 | 39% | −6.5% | −0.3% | 28% | 23 | No better than chance | 29 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 49 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 16 Jul 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 20 | 45% | −3.4% | −0.3% | 65% | 17 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 26 | 54% | +1.4% | −0.3% | 82% | 17 | No better than chance | 6 Jul 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 26 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.3% | 97% | 14 | No better than chance | 29 Aug 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 16 | 50% | +1.5% | −0.3% | 86% | 12 | No better than chance | 6 Jul 2026 |
| Golden cross | 4 | 50% | +9.7% | −0.3% | 10% | Too few cases | 7 Apr 2026 | |
| Death cross | 4 | 50% | −1.0% | −0.3% | 89% | Too few cases | 26 Aug 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% rise in 30 days | 16 | 69% | +8.1% | −0.3% | 15% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up | 19 Jul 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 19 | 58% | +6.8% | −0.3% | 22% | 55 | Some evidence · leans up | 29 Jul 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 37 | 62% | +4.4% | −0.3% | 26% | 54 | Weak evidence | 17 Jul 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 54 | 57% | +3.1% | −0.3% | 32% | 53 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 42 | 57% | +2.4% | −0.3% | 53% | 51 | Weak evidence | 31 Aug 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 114 | 46% | −1.9% | −0.3% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 116 | 45% | −1.6% | −0.3% | 65% | 48 | Weak evidence | 10 Sep 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 22 | 27% | −3.8% | −0.3% | 58% | 44 | Weak evidence | 25 Aug 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 24 | 54% | +1.2% | −0.3% | 86% | 40 | Weak evidence | 30 Jul 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 76 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.3% | 56% | 25 | No better than chance | 28 Aug 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 79 | 48% | −1.0% | −0.3% | 89% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 46 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.3% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance | 28 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 73 | 51% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 31 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 42 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 80 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.3% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 28 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 34 | 53% | +1.2% | −0.3% | 82% | 20 | No better than chance | 28 Aug 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 29 | 41% | −2.1% | −0.3% | 79% | 19 | No better than chance | 28 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 13 | 54% | +1.0% | −0.3% | 93% | 9 | No better than chance | 21 Jul 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 12 | 33% | −1.1% | −0.3% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance | 10 Jul 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 9 | 44% | −3.4% | −0.3% | 40% | Too few cases | 28 Jul 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 8 | 50% | −2.2% | −0.3% | 61% | Too few cases | 18 Aug 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 48 | 46% | −2.2% | −0.3% | 69% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 52 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.3% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 7 | 43% | −3.4% | −0.3% | 44% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 50% | −1.4% | −0.3% | 77% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $1.25 | +1.7% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $1.25 | +1.7% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Five red days in a row | $1.38 | −8.1% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $1.50 | −16.8% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $1.50 | −16.8% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $1.60 | −8.7% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $1.67 | −10.4% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.