COTI volatility and risk: how violent it has been
2,453 daily moves since 26 Feb 2020. On a typical day COTI moves 3.4% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 10.1%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −99%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2020 | −55.6% | $0.01200 | +18.9% | +45.7% |
| 19 May 2021 | −32.5% | $0.2473 | +9.6% | −27.3% |
| 11 May 2022 | −26.7% | $0.1143 | −7.3% | +4.7% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −26.5% | $0.03652 | −9.8% | +56.4% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | −25.2% | $0.1365 | +6.0% | −23.6% |
| 5 Sep 2020 | −25.1% | $0.04992 | +18.1% | −24.9% |
| 26 Aug 2021 | −23.0% | $0.3694 | −8.0% | +51.2% |
| 13 Apr 2024 | −22.3% | $0.09907 | +29.9% | +12.3% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | −22.2% | $0.01346 | +6.5% | +3.4% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | −20.9% | $0.2921 | +5.9% | −24.2% |
After these 10 falls, COTI was higher a week later in 7 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 6 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 77 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2021 | +67.4% | $0.4800 | −29.8% | +3.2% |
| 9 Nov 2025 | +61.7% | $0.05713 | −40.4% | −54.0% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | +57.0% | $0.01729 | −25.5% | −26.9% |
| 24 Feb 2024 | +52.0% | $0.1897 | +16.7% | +6.5% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | +48.2% | $0.01104 | +13.9% | +12.0% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | +47.0% | $0.02535 | −35.9% | −56.6% |
| 23 Sep 2021 | +42.7% | $0.5643 | +10.1% | −7.3% |
| 22 Nov 2024 | +37.0% | $0.1389 | +8.0% | −13.9% |
| 8 Mar 2021 | +34.4% | $0.4410 | −14.4% | −16.1% |
| 22 Sep 2021 | +33.8% | $0.3955 | +64.0% | +34.4% |
After these 10 gains, COTI was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 4 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 86 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
COTI and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days COTI has moved only weakly with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.28, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, COTI moved about 0.82% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.13 | 0.39% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.28 | 0.82% |
| All shared history | 2,453 | 0.53 | 1.24% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 2,453 days both pairs traded. What COTI did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.