COTI signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily COTI candle since 26 Feb 2020 (2,454 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 10 signals did no better than picking days at random.
COTI price · last close$0.0080314 Nov 2026 close: $0.00803 (7d −16.0%)
RSI (14)27.8under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.01×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume49.4%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI rises above 70 | 33 | 58% | +8.6% | −1.3% | 6.6% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans up | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 24 | 42% | −7.6% | −1.3% | 37% | 48 | Weak evidence | 25 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 41 | 46% | −3.2% | −1.3% | 80% | 48 | Weak evidence | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 53 | 53% | +0.4% | −1.3% | 80% | 48 | Weak evidence | 12 Jul 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 86 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.3% | 91% | 46 | Weak evidence | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 36 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 94% | 44 | Weak evidence | 11 Aug 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 18 | 67% | +4.1% | −1.3% | 58% | 43 | Weak evidence | 17 Jul 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 77 | 52% | +1.1% | −1.3% | 62% | 24 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 53 | 49% | 0.0% | −1.3% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 47 | 43% | −1.2% | −1.3% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 63 | 48% | −1.2% | −1.3% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 33 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.3% | 89% | 19 | No better than chance | 3 Oct 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 20 | 40% | −4.6% | −1.3% | 74% | 16 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 26 | 46% | −2.0% | −1.3% | 96% | 14 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 20 | 50% | +1.1% | −1.3% | 84% | 14 | No better than chance | 25 Feb 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 21 | 48% | −2.9% | −1.3% | 90% | 13 | No better than chance | 28 Jul 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 18 | 44% | −2.6% | −1.3% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance | 13 Jul 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 44% | −0.9% | −1.3% | 94% | Too few cases | 7 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 63% | +7.6% | −1.3% | 11% | Too few cases | 10 Nov 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% rise in 3 days | 134 | 43% | −3.5% | −1.3% | 49% | 49 | Weak evidence | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 179 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.3% | 69% | 47 | Weak evidence | 23 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 132 | 41% | −2.1% | −1.3% | 87% | 46 | Weak evidence | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 44 | 41% | −1.6% | −1.3% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 15 | 67% | +6.0% | −1.3% | 48% | 45 | Weak evidence | 24 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 147 | 45% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 29 | 55% | +1.1% | −1.3% | 80% | 43 | Weak evidence | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 12 | 58% | +2.6% | −1.3% | 78% | 37 | Weak evidence | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 35 | 46% | −6.6% | −1.3% | 37% | 27 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 139 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.3% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 73 | 51% | 0.0% | −1.3% | 83% | 22 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 26 | 62% | +3.3% | −1.3% | 56% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 68 | 49% | −0.7% | −1.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 60 | 45% | −2.1% | −1.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 16 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 199 | 46% | −1.2% | −1.3% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 94 | 39% | −1.4% | −1.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 77 | 44% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 45 | 49% | −1.4% | −1.3% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 30 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.3% | 91% | 17 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 23 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.3% | 91% | 14 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 12 | 50% | −2.1% | −1.3% | 97% | 7 | No better than chance | 29 Jul 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 85 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.3% | 88% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 15 | 33% | −5.2% | −1.3% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 69 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.3% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 12 | 50% | −1.5% | −1.3% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026 | Death cross | $0.00946 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.00956 | −16.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.00987 | −3.6% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.01100 | −10.3% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.01074 | −3.1% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.