Chainlink volatility and risk: how violent it has been
2,859 daily moves since 16 Jan 2019. On a typical day LINK moves 2.8% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 7.7%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −90%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2020 | −47.8% | $1.99 | +12.4% | +65.1% |
| 19 May 2021 | −38.4% | $26.23 | +29.7% | −19.0% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −21.3% | $17.31 | −4.0% | −8.0% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | −19.8% | $17.37 | +8.4% | −11.9% |
| 3 Sep 2020 | −19.7% | $11.89 | +5.1% | −22.0% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −19.2% | $6.23 | −0.8% | +10.1% |
| 11 May 2022 | −19.1% | $6.95 | −2.0% | +15.7% |
| 9 May 2022 | −19.0% | $8.10 | −8.4% | +7.4% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | −18.8% | $28.26 | +9.0% | −5.1% |
| 16 Jul 2019 | −18.4% | $2.19 | +7.2% | +10.4% |
After these 10 falls, LINK was higher a week later in 6 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 5 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 52 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jun 2019 | +63.2% | $1.87 | −5.5% | +69.4% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | +33.4% | $25.23 | −11.8% | −13.9% |
| 24 May 2021 | +33.1% | $26.41 | +21.5% | −30.4% |
| 28 Jun 2019 | +32.8% | $3.04 | +19.8% | −27.1% |
| 24 Sep 2020 | +29.2% | $9.87 | −2.3% | +28.7% |
| 14 May 2019 | +27.9% | $0.8280 | +42.5% | +125.6% |
| 12 Aug 2020 | +26.7% | $16.46 | −1.7% | −24.4% |
| 8 Aug 2020 | +25.5% | $12.71 | +51.3% | −1.9% |
| 5 Jun 2019 | +23.8% | $1.10 | +4.5% | +232.1% |
| 26 May 2021 | +23.7% | $34.02 | −9.8% | −50.4% |
After these 10 gains, LINK was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 4 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 77 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Chainlink and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days LINK has moved very closely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.82, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, LINK moved about 1.23% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.73 | 1.26% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.82 | 1.23% |
| All shared history | 2,859 | 0.62 | 1.08% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 2,859 days both pairs traded. What LINK did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.