Axie Infinity volatility and risk: how violent it has been
2,201 daily moves since 4 Nov 2020. On a typical day AXS moves 2.9% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 9.0%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −100%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2021 | −40.0% | $3.96 | +24.1% | +10.7% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −31.1% | $1.52 | +1.5% | −5.4% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −24.4% | $6.03 | +17.2% | +32.8% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | −23.9% | $3.20 | +24.1% | +598.4% |
| 25 Jan 2026 | −22.2% | $2.05 | −15.5% | −38.6% |
| 11 May 2022 | −21.7% | $18.97 | +13.9% | −4.8% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | −19.2% | $7.63 | −0.6% | −18.9% |
| 9 May 2022 | −18.8% | $24.77 | −21.0% | −21.4% |
| 23 Feb 2021 | −18.6% | $1.35 | +24.8% | +163.4% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | −18.6% | $64.40 | +3.6% | +93.4% |
After these 10 falls, AXS was higher a week later in 7 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 5 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 58 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2021 | +71.5% | $42.53 | +1.7% | +81.4% |
| 5 Apr 2021 | +58.2% | $9.31 | −18.2% | −7.1% |
| 17 Jan 2026 | +49.5% | $1.98 | +33.1% | −30.6% |
| 21 Jul 2021 | +48.9% | $22.35 | +104.1% | +229.8% |
| 1 Oct 2021 | +47.7% | $110.3 | +14.5% | +25.3% |
| 10 Aug 2021 | +47.6% | $64.26 | +11.9% | +7.6% |
| 14 Nov 2020 | +43.5% | $0.5656 | −17.3% | +12.8% |
| 8 Nov 2020 | +41.0% | $0.1985 | +197.6% | +187.8% |
| 9 Nov 2020 | +41.0% | $0.2798 | +99.9% | +124.3% |
| 22 Jan 2023 | +40.5% | $12.56 | −2.8% | −13.9% |
After these 10 gains, AXS was higher a week later in 7 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 7 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 70 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Axie Infinity and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days AXS has moved loosely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.40, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, AXS moved about 1.07% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.71 | 1.31% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.40 | 1.07% |
| All shared history | 2,201 | 0.51 | 1.22% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 2,201 days both pairs traded. What AXS did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.