Axie Infinity signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily AXS candle since 4 Nov 2020 (2,202 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 11 signals did no better than picking days at random.
AXS price · last close$0.668014 Nov 2026 close: $0.6680 (7d −19.5%)
RSI (14)23.2under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.54×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.2%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme sell pressure | 54 | 37% | −4.5% | −1.2% | 49% | 51 | Weak evidence | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 40 | 57% | +1.9% | −1.2% | 62% | 51 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 37 | 49% | 0.0% | −1.2% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence | 10 Feb 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 21 | 57% | +1.5% | −1.2% | 79% | 41 | Weak evidence | 3 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 18 | 61% | +1.9% | −1.2% | 77% | 40 | Weak evidence | 4 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 14 | 57% | +1.9% | −1.2% | 79% | 38 | Weak evidence | 5 Apr 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 70 | 44% | −3.1% | −1.2% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance | 4 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 45 | 44% | −2.6% | −1.2% | 87% | 23 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 18 | 56% | +6.0% | −1.2% | 32% | 23 | No better than chance | 23 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 54 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.2% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 58 | 47% | −0.8% | −1.2% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 26 Apr 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 33 | 42% | −2.1% | −1.2% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance | 25 May 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 34 | 50% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 95% | 18 | No better than chance | 16 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 31 | 45% | −1.4% | −1.2% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 31 | 48% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance | 4 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 27 | 48% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance | 15 Jun 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 21 | 38% | −2.5% | −1.2% | 93% | 13 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Golden cross | 5 | 20% | −10.1% | −1.2% | 17% | Too few cases | 18 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 80% | +2.8% | −1.2% | 52% | Too few cases | 12 Mar 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% rise in 30 days | 26 | 65% | +8.9% | −1.2% | 5.1% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans up | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 14 | 79% | +18.1% | −1.2% | 1.9% | 87 | Strong evidence · leans up | 26 Jan 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 36 | 56% | +8.2% | −1.2% | 2.8% | 73 | Strong evidence · leans up | 20 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 78 | 55% | +1.3% | −1.2% | 54% | 50 | Weak evidence | 17 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 61 | 52% | +0.7% | −1.2% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 100 | 43% | −2.8% | −1.2% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 45 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.2% | 88% | 48 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 50 | 50% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 11 | 64% | +7.7% | −1.2% | 37% | 45 | Weak evidence | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 22 | 55% | +2.2% | −1.2% | 70% | 43 | Weak evidence | 27 Feb 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 41 | 54% | +1.3% | −1.2% | 70% | 25 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 47 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.2% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance | 9 Feb 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 95 | 53% | +0.3% | −1.2% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance | 4 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 160 | 49% | −0.3% | −1.2% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 112 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.2% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 110 | 47% | −1.7% | −1.2% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 145 | 46% | −1.3% | −1.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 35 | 46% | −2.8% | −1.2% | 87% | 20 | No better than chance | 25 Apr 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 25 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.2% | 93% | 15 | No better than chance | 1 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 18 | 44% | −0.8% | −1.2% | 98% | 10 | No better than chance | 25 Jan 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 9 | 56% | +3.6% | −1.2% | 31% | Too few cases | 22 Feb 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 73 | 58% | +2.8% | −1.2% | 27% | 53 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 64% | +7.7% | −1.2% | 36% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 12 | 67% | +2.4% | −1.2% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 61 | 41% | −2.3% | −1.2% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.8090 | open |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.7880 | open |
| 2 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.8340 | −3.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $1.06 | −9.5% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Golden cross | $1.01 | −7.1% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $1.06 | −6.5% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.