Audius volatility and risk: how violent it has been
2,213 daily moves since 23 Oct 2020. On a typical day AUDIO moves 2.7% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 9.4%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −100%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2021 | −37.1% | $1.26 | +0.9% | −27.3% |
| 11 May 2022 | −34.3% | $0.3990 | +2.3% | −0.8% |
| 28 Oct 2020 | −27.9% | $0.1153 | −13.5% | +10.5% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −26.5% | $0.04020 | +3.0% | −3.0% |
| 20 Sep 2021 | −24.4% | $2.31 | −13.1% | −11.9% |
| 25 Oct 2020 | −22.3% | $0.1851 | −45.5% | −32.8% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | −22.2% | $2.09 | +5.3% | +1.1% |
| 18 Apr 2026 | −21.8% | $0.01985 | +3.8% | −3.3% |
| 9 May 2022 | −21.2% | $0.5920 | −26.9% | −25.7% |
| 18 Nov 2020 | −20.4% | $0.1507 | −20.4% | +42.7% |
After these 10 falls, AUDIO was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 3 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 59 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2021 | +70.5% | $2.73 | +12.9% | −17.4% |
| 6 Mar 2021 | +69.1% | $1.01 | +44.8% | +171.7% |
| 19 Mar 2022 | +47.7% | $1.13 | −8.2% | +21.6% |
| 13 Mar 2021 | +45.8% | $1.47 | −4.7% | +78.8% |
| 17 Apr 2026 | +45.6% | $0.02537 | −16.1% | −22.7% |
| 24 Jan 2023 | +38.6% | $0.2850 | −3.2% | +28.2% |
| 13 Jul 2021 | +36.4% | $1.27 | −34.7% | +16.7% |
| 27 Mar 2021 | +34.5% | $4.03 | −23.5% | −43.6% |
| 23 Nov 2021 | +34.1% | $2.79 | −17.6% | −39.1% |
| 17 Nov 2020 | +33.5% | $0.1893 | −34.3% | +22.5% |
After these 10 gains, AUDIO was higher a week later in 2 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 6 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 58 scored cases, verdict “strong evidence”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Audius and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days AUDIO has moved loosely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.47, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, AUDIO moved about 0.80% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.55 | 0.78% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.47 | 0.80% |
| All shared history | 2,213 | 0.47 | 1.04% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 2,213 days both pairs traded. What AUDIO did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.