Audius signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily AUDIO candle since 23 Oct 2020 (2,214 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 9 signals did no better than picking days at random.
AUDIO price · last close$0.0107314 Nov 2026 close: $0.01073 (7d −6.1%)
RSI (14)24.9under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.42×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume51.0%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 58 | 36% | −5.8% | −1.2% | 12% | 81 | Strong evidence · leans down | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 59 | 56% | +1.0% | −1.2% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 32 | 56% | +1.4% | −1.2% | 63% | 47 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 54 | 39% | −1.4% | −1.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence | 27 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 27 | 56% | +0.9% | −1.2% | 75% | 43 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 24 | 38% | −3.3% | −1.2% | 77% | 42 | Weak evidence | 9 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 28 | 43% | −2.3% | −1.2% | 90% | 41 | Weak evidence | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 25 | 48% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 91% | 40 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 61 | 39% | −4.5% | −1.2% | 31% | 27 | No better than chance | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 50 | 44% | −2.7% | −1.2% | 75% | 23 | No better than chance | 25 Aug 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 40 | 50% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance | 6 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 21 | 38% | −3.1% | −1.2% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 30 | 37% | −1.4% | −1.2% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance | 25 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 25 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.2% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance | 26 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 15 | 47% | −2.3% | −1.2% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance | 18 Aug 2025 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 14 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 99% | 8 | No better than chance | 18 Apr 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 13 | 46% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 99% | 7 | No better than chance | 27 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 4 | 25% | −6.1% | −1.2% | 39% | Too few cases | 5 Dec 2024 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 80% | +2.2% | −1.2% | 50% | Too few cases | 10 Feb 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% rise in 30 days | 33 | 73% | +10.6% | −1.2% | 1.9% | 97 | Strong evidence · leans up | 14 Dec 2024 |
| 15% rise in a day | 32 | 31% | −8.2% | −1.2% | 8.5% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down | 17 Apr 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 33 | 33% | −8.2% | −1.2% | 8.8% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down | 17 Apr 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 100 | 33% | −4.5% | −1.2% | 12% | 78 | Strong evidence · leans down | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 139 | 38% | −3.9% | −1.2% | 17% | 66 | Some evidence · leans down | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 49 | 35% | −4.6% | −1.2% | 38% | 52 | Weak evidence | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 93 | 42% | −4.1% | −1.2% | 26% | 51 | Weak evidence | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 110 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.2% | 64% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 100 | 54% | +0.4% | −1.2% | 57% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 67 | 46% | −0.2% | −1.2% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 16 | 75% | +4.5% | −1.2% | 42% | 45 | Weak evidence | 13 Apr 2024 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 25 | 56% | +1.3% | −1.2% | 73% | 43 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 17 | 53% | +0.9% | −1.2% | 82% | 38 | Weak evidence | 18 Apr 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 39 | 41% | −4.2% | −1.2% | 52% | 26 | No better than chance | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 53 | 51% | +0.8% | −1.2% | 63% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 149 | 47% | −0.6% | −1.2% | 86% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 61 | 43% | −1.4% | −1.2% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 18 | 61% | +3.8% | −1.2% | 45% | 20 | No better than chance | 4 Dec 2024 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 21 | 52% | +0.7% | −1.2% | 82% | 14 | No better than chance | 8 May 2024 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 8 | 50% | +0.3% | −1.2% | 70% | Too few cases | 1 Jun 2022 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 9 | 56% | +7.8% | −1.2% | 4.2% | Too few cases | 24 Jan 2023 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 74 | 49% | −0.6% | −1.2% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 44% | −1.1% | −1.2% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 64% | +2.6% | −1.2% | 71% | 39 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 12 | 42% | −3.1% | −1.2% | 87% | 35 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.01142 | +1.0% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.01142 | +1.0% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.01142 | +1.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.01437 | −9.4% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.01414 | −6.6% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.