Arweave volatility and risk: how violent it has been
2,010 daily moves since 14 May 2021. On a typical day AR moves 3.4% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 9.3%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −98%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | −29.7% | $4.00 | −3.0% | +44.0% |
| 19 May 2021 | −26.9% | $16.48 | +7.0% | −4.8% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | −26.6% | $13.53 | −26.1% | −39.0% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −23.9% | $8.88 | +6.2% | +1.0% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | −20.7% | $24.58 | +12.0% | +70.5% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | −19.5% | $4.92 | +2.0% | +20.9% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | −19.1% | $32.31 | −1.8% | −19.2% |
| 20 Sep 2021 | −18.9% | $40.33 | +1.5% | +40.1% |
| 21 May 2021 | −18.0% | $15.38 | −5.0% | +19.9% |
| 8 Nov 2025 | −18.0% | $6.49 | −30.2% | −37.8% |
After these 10 falls, AR was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 6 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 59 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2021 | +51.2% | $33.42 | −19.3% | +46.4% |
| 27 Aug 2021 | +50.8% | $38.66 | +51.8% | +11.8% |
| 28 Feb 2024 | +50.7% | $28.80 | +24.4% | +35.7% |
| 2 Nov 2021 | +40.7% | $74.97 | −3.2% | −25.4% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | +37.8% | $7.91 | −43.5% | −50.4% |
| 18 Sep 2026 | +37.6% | $3.65 | +27.2% | +3.1% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +33.5% | $5.74 | −19.9% | −30.1% |
| 30 Aug 2021 | +32.2% | $56.32 | +1.2% | −27.8% |
| 3 Nov 2022 | +29.8% | $14.67 | −28.1% | −37.4% |
| 22 Sep 2021 | +26.9% | $46.95 | −13.4% | +16.4% |
After these 10 gains, AR was higher a week later in 4 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 5 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 71 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Arweave and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days AR has moved loosely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.56, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, AR moved about 1.27% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.63 | 1.84% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.56 | 1.27% |
| All shared history | 2,010 | 0.57 | 1.34% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 2,010 days both pairs traded. What AR did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.