Arweave seasonality: every month and weekday
Going by median return since 2021, Arweave's best month has been November (+14.9%, higher in 4 of 5 years) and its worst June (−25.7%, higher in 0 of 6). Across all 65 full months, it finished higher 40% of the time.
A handful of years per month is a small sample. The “by luck” column says how easily a record like that would turn up if the month were no different from any other.
By month
| Month | Years | Higher | Median | Average | Best | Worst | By luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5 | 1 of 5 | −12.6% | −0.5% | +70% (2023) | −34% (2022) | 65% |
| February | 5 | 1 of 5 | −17.8% | +21.4% | +217% (2024) | −48% (2025) | 65% |
| March | 5 | 3 of 5 | +10.1% | +6.9% | +45% (2024) | −24% (2025) | 65% |
| April | 5 | 2 of 5 | −13.5% | −10.9% | +10% (2026) | −38% (2022) | 100% |
| May | 5 | 2 of 5 | −7.5% | +2.8% | +50% (2024) | −33% (2022) | 100% |
| June | 6 | 0 of 6 | −25.7% | −25.6% | −11% (2026) | −39% (2024) | 8.8% |
| July | 6 | 4 of 6 | +8.7% | +15.9% | +59% (2022) | −14% (2026) | 23% |
| August | 6 | 2 of 6 | −16.4% | +64.9% | +463% (2021) | −36% (2022) | 100% |
| September | 6 | 3 of 6 | −1.8% | +8.8% | +99% (2026) | −34% (2021) | 69% |
| October | 6 | 3 of 6 | −5.9% | −2.2% | +40% (2023) | −35% (2025) | 69% |
| November | 5 | 4 of 5 | +14.9% | +23.2% | +67% (2024) | −7% (2022) | 16% |
| December | 5 | 1 of 5 | −15.9% | −13.5% | +23% (2023) | −38% (2024) | 65% |
By weekday
| Day (UTC) | Days | Higher | Median daily move | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 287 | 46% | −0.55% | −0.41% |
| Tuesday | 287 | 46% | −0.33% | −0.25% |
| Wednesday | 287 | 44% | −0.95% | +0.53% |
| Thursday | 287 | 45% | −1.02% | 0.00% |
| Friday | 287 | 52% | +0.24% | +0.32% |
| Saturday | 288 | 46% | −0.25% | +0.24% |
| Sunday | 287 | 48% | −0.15% | +0.25% |
A month's return runs from the open of its first daily candle to the close of its last (UTC). Only full months are counted. Daily moves are close to close.