Aptos volatility and risk: how violent it has been
1,487 daily moves since 19 Oct 2022. On a typical day APT moves 2.6% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 7.1%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −98%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | −26.8% | $3.66 | −12.9% | −11.6% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −26.3% | $3.96 | +13.6% | +21.3% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | −23.2% | $5.38 | −19.4% | −8.5% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | −19.3% | $6.01 | +16.4% | +18.0% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | −17.7% | $2.78 | +18.7% | −27.3% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | −17.6% | $11.95 | +16.6% | −24.5% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | −17.6% | $9.77 | −3.6% | −14.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | −16.1% | $0.4496 | open | open |
| 5 Feb 2026 | −15.5% | $1.03 | −10.4% | −8.9% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | −15.0% | $5.74 | −9.4% | −11.2% |
After these 10 falls, APT was higher a week later in 4 of 9 cases and higher 30 days later in 2 of 9. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 25 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2023 | +48.9% | $18.38 | −0.6% | −30.1% |
| 20 Jan 2023 | +39.0% | $10.95 | +62.2% | +28.6% |
| 9 Jan 2023 | +32.6% | $5.21 | +56.0% | +189.3% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | +30.1% | $5.15 | −9.6% | −7.2% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | +25.9% | $13.72 | −12.2% | −6.2% |
| 28 Feb 2024 | +24.3% | $12.37 | +10.7% | +39.2% |
| 18 Sep 2026 | +22.4% | $0.7320 | +19.2% | +7.0% |
| 12 Jan 2023 | +22.0% | $6.46 | +21.9% | +115.0% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +22.0% | $1.01 | +0.4% | −2.9% |
| 22 Oct 2022 | +19.4% | $8.96 | −11.2% | −54.6% |
After these 10 gains, APT was higher a week later in 6 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 5 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 35 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Aptos and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days APT has moved closely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.68, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, APT moved about 1.35% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.67 | 1.58% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.68 | 1.35% |
| All shared history | 1,487 | 0.61 | 1.32% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 1,487 days both pairs traded. What APT did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.