Aptos signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily APT candle since 19 Oct 2022 (1,488 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 11 signals did no better than picking days at random.
APT price · last close$0.449614 Nov 2026 close: $0.4496 (7d −25.4%)
RSI (14)23.8under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.48×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume45.0%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five red days in a row | 24 | 58% | +5.9% | −1.5% | 17% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up | 25 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 35 | 40% | −3.2% | −1.5% | 84% | 46 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 25 | 32% | −4.1% | −1.5% | 78% | 43 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 13 | 54% | +1.0% | −1.5% | 87% | 37 | Weak evidence | 14 Aug 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 15 | 33% | −3.2% | −1.5% | 91% | 36 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 11 | 45% | −0.4% | −1.5% | 96% | 33 | No better than chance | 20 Jul 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 26 | 54% | +3.0% | −1.5% | 47% | 22 | No better than chance | 11 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 41 | 37% | −2.3% | −1.5% | 94% | 22 | No better than chance | 22 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 11 | 64% | +7.4% | −1.5% | 32% | 21 | No better than chance | 19 Sep 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 22 | 55% | +0.7% | −1.5% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance | 25 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 27 | 44% | −1.3% | −1.5% | 99% | 14 | No better than chance | 17 Aug 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 19 | 42% | −3.6% | −1.5% | 86% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 18 | 44% | −3.1% | −1.5% | 91% | 12 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 23 | 39% | −1.2% | −1.5% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 15 | 53% | +0.3% | −1.5% | 91% | 11 | No better than chance | 24 Apr 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 14 | 36% | −3.0% | −1.5% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 3 | 0% | −6.7% | −1.5% | 47% | Too few cases | 23 Jul 2025 | |
| Golden cross | 3 | 33% | −3.5% | −1.5% | 78% | Too few cases | 22 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 3 | 67% | +0.4% | −1.5% | 79% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% drop in 3 days | 58 | 41% | −2.7% | −1.5% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 23 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 93 | 42% | −2.3% | −1.5% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 55 | 38% | −2.5% | −1.5% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 27 | 37% | −4.5% | −1.5% | 70% | 45 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 16 | 69% | +2.6% | −1.5% | 65% | 41 | Weak evidence | 7 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 16 | 44% | −2.0% | −1.5% | 98% | 34 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 95 | 39% | −2.9% | −1.5% | 76% | 23 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 54 | 43% | −2.3% | −1.5% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 64 | 44% | −2.4% | −1.5% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 49 | 49% | −0.9% | −1.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 27 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 38 | 42% | −2.1% | −1.5% | 96% | 20 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 10 | 50% | −0.9% | −1.5% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 12 | 58% | +3.6% | −1.5% | 61% | 16 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 20 | 35% | −4.2% | −1.5% | 78% | 15 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 21 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.5% | 90% | 14 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 6 | 50% | +6.4% | −1.5% | 14% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 9 | 56% | +0.1% | −1.5% | 73% | Too few cases | 31 Jan 2026 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 6 | 50% | −0.8% | −1.5% | 88% | Too few cases | 6 Jun 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 5 | 60% | +9.8% | −1.5% | 6.7% | Too few cases | 12 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 5 | 40% | −4.2% | −1.5% | 66% | Too few cases | 22 Sep 2026 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 4 | 50% | +2.5% | −1.5% | 50% | Too few cases | 8 Feb 2023 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 34 | 62% | +2.6% | −1.5% | 43% | 50 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 24 | 33% | −5.9% | −1.5% | 52% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 1 | 0% | −10.4% | −1.5% | – | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 4 | 50% | −2.2% | −1.5% | 91% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.5635 | open |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.6168 | −5.2% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.7023 | −10.4% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Golden cross | $0.7533 | −18.1% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.7533 | −18.1% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.