TRON volatility and risk: how violent it has been
3,078 daily moves since 11 Jun 2018. On a typical day TRX moves 1.5% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 6.3%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −83%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2020 | −43.5% | $0.00841 | +38.3% | +48.6% |
| 19 May 2021 | −32.2% | $0.07881 | +5.5% | −11.7% |
| 4 Dec 2024 | −23.7% | $0.3306 | −14.6% | −18.3% |
| 24 Sep 2019 | −21.4% | $0.01255 | +11.1% | +20.8% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | −20.9% | $0.05351 | +22.1% | +0.7% |
| 11 Oct 2018 | −17.9% | $0.02095 | +17.9% | +10.2% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | −17.7% | $0.08539 | +38.4% | +11.8% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | −17.4% | $0.2629 | +12.9% | −4.7% |
| 9 May 2022 | −17.3% | $0.07272 | −4.9% | +10.9% |
| 23 Feb 2021 | −17.0% | $0.04501 | +4.1% | +22.8% |
After these 10 falls, TRX was higher a week later in 8 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 7 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 37 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2024 | +96.1% | $0.4334 | −37.8% | −38.8% |
| 31 Mar 2021 | +40.9% | $0.09296 | +18.8% | +42.2% |
| 4 Apr 2021 | +25.8% | $0.1276 | −4.3% | −6.6% |
| 5 May 2021 | +23.0% | $0.1465 | −18.7% | −47.4% |
| 11 Feb 2021 | +22.7% | $0.05681 | −3.3% | −6.9% |
| 24 May 2021 | +22.5% | $0.07696 | −0.2% | −24.7% |
| 13 Mar 2020 | +22.4% | $0.01029 | +9.5% | +23.0% |
| 28 Nov 2018 | +21.8% | $0.01467 | −4.8% | +38.4% |
| 14 Jan 2019 | +21.1% | $0.02524 | +0.5% | −4.7% |
| 17 Aug 2018 | +20.8% | $0.02333 | −7.8% | −14.5% |
After these 10 gains, TRX was higher a week later in 3 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 3 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 46 scored cases, verdict “strong evidence”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
TRON and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days TRX has moved only weakly with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.32, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, TRX moved about 0.18% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.11 | 0.07% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.32 | 0.18% |
| All shared history | 3,078 | 0.56 | 0.78% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 3,078 days both pairs traded. What TRX did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.