Cyber volatility and risk: how violent it has been
1,187 daily moves since 15 Aug 2023. On a typical day CYBER moves 3.1% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 9.0%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −98%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2023 | −38.2% | $7.18 | −26.9% | −28.9% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −35.1% | $0.9980 | +6.3% | −0.2% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | −22.8% | $10.35 | −15.3% | −24.9% |
| 13 Apr 2024 | −21.1% | $8.16 | +15.1% | −6.9% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | −20.4% | $4.29 | +11.6% | −27.1% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | −17.0% | $1.40 | −18.7% | −20.1% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | −15.6% | $1.94 | −13.9% | −29.9% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | −15.4% | $0.4710 | +21.4% | +8.7% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | −13.9% | $0.8540 | +19.8% | +5.4% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | −13.3% | $0.5730 | −7.5% | −3.5% |
After these 10 falls, CYBER was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 2 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 27 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2023 | +95.9% | $7.16 | −18.3% | −27.7% |
| 12 Aug 2025 | +62.0% | $3.00 | −25.2% | −38.3% |
| 1 Sep 2023 | +35.7% | $11.62 | −53.0% | −53.4% |
| 25 Oct 2023 | +31.6% | $6.28 | +2.1% | +1.9% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | +23.8% | $0.3170 | −21.1% | open |
| 30 Aug 2023 | +21.4% | $8.69 | −30.1% | −41.0% |
| 6 Feb 2026 | +20.4% | $0.5670 | +3.2% | −8.6% |
| 15 Jan 2024 | +18.6% | $9.01 | −22.1% | −9.1% |
| 24 Aug 2024 | +17.8% | $4.40 | −26.5% | −17.1% |
| 12 Oct 2025 | +15.2% | $1.11 | −1.5% | −15.9% |
After these 10 gains, CYBER was higher a week later in 2 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 1 of 9. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 34 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Cyber and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days CYBER has moved loosely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.48, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, CYBER moved about 0.90% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.32 | 0.73% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.48 | 0.90% |
| All shared history | 1,187 | 0.46 | 1.24% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 1,187 days both pairs traded. What CYBER did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.