Arkham volatility and risk: how violent it has been
1,215 daily moves since 18 Jul 2023. On a typical day ARKM moves 3.4% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 8.7%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −98%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | −35.3% | $0.3340 | +6.0% | +1.5% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | −20.0% | $1.58 | +9.5% | +56.2% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | −19.8% | $1.93 | +3.2% | −29.6% |
| 10 Mar 2024 | −19.4% | $3.21 | −7.9% | −37.4% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | −19.2% | $0.5560 | −17.4% | −13.7% |
| 9 Apr 2024 | −19.1% | $2.01 | −21.3% | +33.7% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | −17.3% | $0.2960 | +18.9% | −18.6% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | −17.0% | $0.5970 | −6.9% | +2.8% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | −15.8% | $0.8760 | −25.8% | −38.7% |
| 2 Sep 2023 | −15.0% | $0.4250 | −11.6% | +1.1% |
After these 10 falls, ARKM was higher a week later in 4 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 5 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 35 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2024 | +51.5% | $2.18 | +34.8% | +20.2% |
| 9 Mar 2024 | +38.5% | $3.98 | −35.0% | −37.6% |
| 6 Mar 2024 | +28.9% | $2.94 | +2.3% | −26.0% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +26.1% | $2.12 | −2.9% | +18.8% |
| 1 Mar 2024 | +26.1% | $2.68 | +7.3% | −2.4% |
| 20 Dec 2023 | +25.1% | $0.7480 | −14.7% | −29.3% |
| 1 Sep 2023 | +22.6% | $0.5000 | −24.0% | −10.8% |
| 23 Sep 2024 | +22.2% | $1.44 | +2.4% | +17.3% |
| 18 Feb 2024 | +20.6% | $1.05 | +56.3% | +127.9% |
| 12 Oct 2024 | +18.1% | $1.82 | −1.8% | +31.1% |
After these 10 gains, ARKM was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 5 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 43 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Arkham and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days ARKM has moved closely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.63, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, ARKM moved about 1.25% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.67 | 1.31% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.63 | 1.25% |
| All shared history | 1,215 | 0.57 | 1.49% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 1,215 days both pairs traded. What ARKM did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.