After a 50% drop in 30 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 703 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence1 of 251 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance16 of 25coins
Scored cases703since 2017
The rule. Close at least 50% below the close 30 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IOTA | 11 | 82% | +13.7% | −0.8% | +14.5% | 4.0% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 THORChain | 21 | 62% | +7.1% | −0.3% | +7.4% | 34% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 15 | 60% | +7.2% | −0.6% | +7.8% | 29% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 12 | 67% | +5.0% | −1.6% | +6.6% | 53% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 12 | 58% | +4.1% | −0.8% | +4.9% | 62% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 12 | 67% | +2.6% | −1.3% | +3.9% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 12 | 58% | +2.6% | −1.3% | +3.9% | 78% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 12 | 58% | +1.6% | −1.2% | +2.8% | 85% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 12 | 58% | +2.0% | −0.6% | +2.6% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 10 | 30% | −5.4% | −0.7% | −4.7% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 10 | 50% | −1.8% | −1.1% | −0.8% | 97% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 13 | 62% | +5.3% | −0.7% | +5.9% | 58% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 10 | 50% | −0.8% | −0.3% | −0.5% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 12 | 67% | +4.1% | −0.6% | +4.7% | 65% | 15 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 12 | 42% | −6.7% | −1.7% | −5.0% | 64% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 11 | 64% | +5.2% | −0.1% | +5.3% | 73% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 21 | 52% | +1.2% | −1.2% | +2.4% | 86% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 18 | 44% | −3.9% | −0.9% | −3.0% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 14 | 57% | +1.8% | −0.8% | +2.6% | 86% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 22 | 45% | −0.6% | −1.3% | +0.7% | 97% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 12 | 42% | −3.7% | −1.5% | −2.2% | 87% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 18 | 44% | −0.5% | −0.5% | +0.1% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 14 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.3% | −0.5% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 15 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 0.0% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 11 | 45% | −0.6% | −1.0% | +0.4% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 2 | 50% | +13.5% | +0.5% | +13.0% | 5.9% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum | 7 | 71% | +10.4% | +0.3% | +10.1% | 2.7% | Too few cases | |
 BNB | 6 | 83% | +23.6% | +0.5% | +23.2% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 XRP | 5 | 60% | +17.6% | −0.8% | +18.3% | 0.4% | Too few cases | |
 Dogecoin | 0 | – | – | −1.0% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Cardano | 7 | 86% | +12.7% | −0.8% | +13.5% | 1.5% | Too few cases | |
 Chainlink | 9 | 89% | +8.9% | +0.1% | +8.8% | 6.2% | Too few cases | |
 TRON | 3 | 67% | +7.0% | +0.7% | +6.4% | 16% | Too few cases | |
 Polkadot | 2 | 50% | +4.3% | −1.0% | +5.3% | 50% | Too few cases | |
 Litecoin | 6 | 67% | +16.9% | −0.2% | +17.1% | 0.2% | Too few cases | |
 Bitcoin Cash | 5 | 20% | −2.4% | −0.2% | −2.2% | 62% | Too few cases | |
 NEAR Protocol | 6 | 33% | −4.0% | −0.6% | −3.4% | 59% | Too few cases | |
 Uniswap | 2 | 50% | −0.8% | −0.4% | −0.3% | 97% | Too few cases | |
 Cosmos | 8 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.9% | +0.6% | 89% | Too few cases | |
 Stellar | 5 | 40% | −6.3% | −1.1% | −5.2% | 26% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum Classic | 8 | 63% | +4.1% | −1.0% | +5.1% | 16% | Too few cases | |
 Aptos | 5 | 60% | +9.8% | −1.5% | +11.3% | 6.7% | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 1 | 100% | +3.7% | −1.7% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Optimism | 5 | 60% | +4.9% | −1.4% | +6.3% | 34% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 2 | 100% | +2.6% | −1.5% | +4.1% | 64% | Too few cases | |
 Aave | 4 | 75% | +10.8% | −0.1% | +10.8% | 12% | Too few cases | |
 Zcash | 5 | 80% | +1.6% | +0.1% | +1.5% | 79% | Too few cases | |
 Pepe | 5 | 20% | −7.5% | −1.4% | −6.0% | 40% | Too few cases | |
| Worldcoin | 7 | 71% | +8.4% | −2.7% | +11.1% | 9.0% | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 1 | 100% | +16.2% | −1.3% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Hedera | 4 | 25% | −2.2% | −1.2% | −1.1% | 85% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 1 | 100% | +24.5% | −2.7% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Internet Computer | 9 | 33% | −10.5% | −1.3% | −9.2% | 4.6% | Too few cases | |
 Shiba Inu | 6 | 67% | +5.2% | −1.5% | +6.6% | 11% | Too few cases | |
 PancakeSwap | 5 | 80% | +18.4% | −0.8% | +19.3% | 0.4% | Too few cases | |
 Dash | 7 | 14% | −5.0% | −0.5% | −4.5% | 31% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 2 | 100% | +15.2% | −2.2% | +17.4% | 11% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 2 | 100% | +9.6% | −0.3% | +9.9% | 33% | Too few cases | |
 JUST | 4 | 75% | +11.0% | +0.6% | +10.3% | 4.3% | Too few cases | |
 Horizen | 9 | 56% | +6.3% | −0.7% | +7.0% | 17% | Too few cases | |
 Lido DAO | 5 | 80% | +8.5% | −1.2% | +9.6% | 17% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 5 | 40% | −10.9% | −0.5% | −10.4% | 17% | Too few cases | |
 The Sandbox | 5 | 80% | +16.4% | −1.3% | +17.7% | 1.7% | Too few cases | |
 ApeCoin | 5 | 60% | +0.7% | −1.7% | +2.4% | 69% | Too few cases | |
 ORDI | 8 | 63% | +5.8% | −1.9% | +7.7% | 14% | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 1 | 100% | +9.2% | −1.6% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Gala | 7 | 29% | −6.8% | −3.0% | −3.8% | 49% | Too few cases | |
 DeXe | 8 | 50% | −2.2% | −0.3% | −2.0% | 61% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 3 | 67% | +1.9% | −2.0% | +3.8% | 60% | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 2 | 100% | +13.3% | −2.2% | +15.6% | 6.1% | Too few cases | |
 Basic Attention Token | 6 | 83% | +15.8% | −0.1% | +16.0% | 0.4% | Too few cases | |
 Audius | 8 | 50% | +0.3% | −1.2% | +1.4% | 70% | Too few cases | |
 dYdX | 9 | 44% | −0.2% | −1.7% | +1.4% | 76% | Too few cases | |
 Axie Infinity | 9 | 56% | +3.6% | −1.2% | +4.8% | 31% | Too few cases | |
 The Graph | 8 | 50% | +0.5% | −1.8% | +2.3% | 62% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 4 | 25% | −8.9% | −2.5% | −6.4% | 36% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 3 | 33% | −3.1% | −0.3% | −2.8% | 44% | Too few cases | |
 Prom | 9 | 33% | −7.2% | −0.2% | −7.0% | 5.8% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 4 | 75% | +2.9% | −1.9% | +4.8% | 46% | Too few cases | |
 Lisk | 7 | 57% | +12.5% | −0.6% | +13.1% | 1.3% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum Name Service | 4 | 75% | +3.9% | −1.1% | +5.0% | 41% | Too few cases | |
 Radworks | 7 | 57% | +1.6% | −0.9% | +2.5% | 52% | Too few cases | |
 Oasis | 9 | 22% | −4.8% | −1.4% | −3.4% | 52% | Too few cases | |
 Immutable | 5 | 80% | +13.6% | −1.7% | +15.3% | 3.5% | Too few cases | |
 Theta Network | 8 | 75% | +9.9% | −0.6% | +10.4% | 4.2% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 6 | 33% | −3.3% | −3.4% | +0.1% | 98% | Too few cases | |
 AVA (Travala) | 3 | 33% | −1.0% | −0.4% | −0.6% | 93% | Too few cases | |
 Gitcoin | 9 | 56% | +2.7% | −1.2% | +3.8% | 46% | Too few cases | |
 Request | 1 | 100% | +15.8% | −0.5% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 1inch | 2 | 100% | +15.3% | −1.3% | +16.6% | 6.9% | Too few cases | |
 Livepeer | 7 | 57% | +1.4% | −1.7% | +3.2% | 54% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 4 | 100% | +7.1% | −1.6% | +8.7% | 14% | Too few cases | |
 Ravencoin | 8 | 63% | +6.0% | −1.3% | +7.3% | 8.4% | Too few cases | |
 Sun | 7 | 29% | −2.4% | −0.4% | −2.0% | 50% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.