What happens to IOTA after a 50% drop in 30 days?

Since 2018, IOTA has shown a 50% drop in 30 days 11 times. In the 11 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 82% of the time, with a median move of +13.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for IOTA is −0.8%.

Strong evidence · leans up86

Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 4.0% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is upward.

Cases since 201811last on 27 May 2022

Higher after 7 days82%ordinary: 46%

Median 7-day move+13.7%ordinary: −0.8%

Could be luck4.0%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−9% / +56%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary IOTA drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	11	64%	+4.7%	−1.6% to +10.8%	0.0%	+4.7%	2.7%	86
3 days	11	100%	+11.8%	+2.2% to +16.5%	−0.3%	+12.1%	1.3%	86
7 days	11	82%	+13.7%	+6.4% to +28.2%	−0.8%	+14.5%	4.0%	86
14 days	11	100%	+33.7%	+9.5% to +41.7%	−2.3%	+36.0%	4.0%	86
30 days	11	64%	+8.2%	−12.1% to +29.4%	−5.3%	+13.5%	63%	18

“Ordinary median” is the median move of IOTA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: under 0.1%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−7.5%ordinary IOTA: −8.4%

1 case in 4 dipped past−12.2%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way45%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+33.8%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+13.4%ordinary: −1.1%

Ahead after costs82%ordinary: 45%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 6 the gap over 7 days was +22.5%, and in the later 5 it was +14.5%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
27 May 2022	$0.3021	+5.7%	+14.7%	−6.0%
19 May 2022	$0.3406	−6.2%	−9.2%	−26.2%
11 May 2022	$0.2974	−0.9%	+12.4%	+8.2%
30 May 2021	$1.03	+8.0%	+21.4%	−18.3%
23 May 2021	$0.9075	+18.6%	+13.7%	−21.3%
22 Mar 2020	$0.1260	+13.7%	+4.4%	+20.5%
12 Mar 2020	$0.1086	+19.6%	+36.7%	+47.6%
13 Dec 2018	$0.2183	−2.8%	+56.0%	+38.4%
6 Dec 2018	$0.2301	+0.6%	−5.1%	+57.5%
20 Aug 2018	$0.4940	+4.7%	+35.0%	+7.3%
13 Aug 2018	$0.4557	−2.2%	+8.4%	+20.4%

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% below the close 30 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
THORChain	21	62%	+7.1%	+7.4%	Weak evidence
Fetch.ai	21	52%	+1.2%	+2.4%	No better than chance
Harmony	22	45%	−0.6%	+0.7%	No better than chance

50% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins

Other IOTA signals

20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 46 cases 40% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 26 cases Extreme sell pressureWeak evidence · 75 cases 15% drop in 7 daysWeak evidence · 88 cases RSI rises above 70Weak evidence · 31 cases Five green days in a rowWeak evidence · 38 cases

Full IOTA record

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