What happens to Lido DAO after a 50% drop in 30 days?

Since 2022, Lido DAO has shown a 50% drop in 30 days 5 times. In the 5 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 80% of the time, with a median move of +8.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for LDO is −1.2%.

Too few cases

With 5 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20225last on 5 Feb 2026

Higher after 7 days80%ordinary: 47%

Median 7-day move+8.5%ordinary: −1.2%

Could be luck17%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−13% / +13%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary LDO drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 5 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	5	80%	+5.2%	+4.3% to +5.4%	−0.3%	+5.5%	4.5%
3 days	5	60%	+6.0%	−10.0% to +9.3%	−0.6%	+6.6%	15%
7 days	5	80%	+8.5%	+4.7% to +11.6%	−1.2%	+9.6%	17%
14 days	5	60%	+0.2%	−2.5% to +4.7%	−2.8%	+2.9%	77%
30 days	5	60%	+58.4%	−12.1% to +204.5%	−4.3%	+62.7%	0.1%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of LDO over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 17%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−11.6%ordinary LDO: −9.8%

1 case in 4 dipped past−16.7%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way60%ordinary: 49%

Typical best point+33.1%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+8.2%ordinary: −1.5%

Ahead after costs80%ordinary: 46%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
5 Feb 2026	$0.3226	+12.5%	+4.7%	−12.1%
16 Mar 2025	$0.9220	+4.3%	+12.8%	−25.7%
28 Jun 2022	$0.5200	−4.0%	+8.5%	+334.8%
20 Jun 2022	$0.5160	+5.4%	+11.6%	+204.5%
13 Jun 2022	$0.5910	+5.2%	−12.7%	+58.4%

The 12 most recent. All 5 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% below the close 30 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
THORChain	21	62%	+7.1%	+7.4%	Weak evidence
Fetch.ai	21	52%	+1.2%	+2.4%	No better than chance
Harmony	22	45%	−0.6%	+0.7%	No better than chance

50% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins

Other Lido DAO signals

Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 40 cases 10% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 15% drop in 7 daysWeak evidence · 54 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 89 cases 20% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 45 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 38 cases

Full Lido DAO record

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