What happens to Algorand after a 50% drop in 30 days?

Since 2019, Algorand has shown a 50% drop in 30 days 11 times. In the 11 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 45% of the time, with a median move of −0.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ALGO is −1.0%.

No better than chance6

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 99% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 201911last on 22 Sep 2020

Higher after 7 days45%ordinary: 46%

Median 7-day move−0.6%ordinary: −1.0%

Could be luck99%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−15% / +39%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary ALGO drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	11	36%	−1.8%	−7.0% to +0.3%	0.0%	−1.8%	48%	15
3 days	11	36%	−5.0%	−9.4% to +3.7%	−0.4%	−4.5%	39%	19
7 days	11	45%	−0.6%	−7.5% to +14.0%	−1.0%	+0.4%	99%	6
14 days	11	55%	+0.4%	−16.7% to +21.0%	−1.6%	+2.0%	96%	8
30 days	11	45%	−11.7%	−24.7% to +29.4%	−4.3%	−7.4%	88%	12

“Ordinary median” is the median move of ALGO over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 93%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−12.9%ordinary ALGO: −8.6%

1 case in 4 dipped past−17.1%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way82%ordinary: 43%

Typical best point+10.4%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−0.9%ordinary: −1.3%

Ahead after costs45%ordinary: 45%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 6 the gap over 7 days was −6.4%, and in the later 5 it was +11.8%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
22 Sep 2020	$0.3062	−12.1%	+10.8%	+3.2%
2 Apr 2020	$0.1580	+0.4%	+26.6%	+38.5%
26 Mar 2020	$0.1590	−3.3%	−0.6%	+32.6%
19 Mar 2020	$0.1574	+0.3%	+1.0%	+26.2%
12 Mar 2020	$0.1343	+13.7%	+17.2%	+33.7%
23 Sep 2019	$0.2670	−27.7%	−6.4%	−25.1%
15 Sep 2019	$0.3280	−1.8%	−8.5%	−24.4%
8 Sep 2019	$0.3850	−4.4%	−14.8%	−41.3%
1 Sep 2019	$0.3880	+1.3%	−0.8%	−40.5%
29 Jul 2019	$0.5710	−0.5%	+38.9%	−23.6%
22 Jul 2019	$0.6420	−9.7%	−11.1%	−11.7%

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% below the close 30 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
THORChain	21	62%	+7.1%	+7.4%	Weak evidence
Fetch.ai	21	52%	+1.2%	+2.4%	No better than chance
Harmony	22	45%	−0.6%	+0.7%	No better than chance

50% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins

Other Algorand signals

Breakout to a 90-day highStrong evidence · 23 cases 20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 41 cases 20% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 41 cases RSI rises above 70Weak evidence · 29 cases Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in controlWeak evidence · 39 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 64 cases

Full Algorand record

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