What happens to Filecoin after a 50% drop in 30 days?

Since 2020, Filecoin has shown a 50% drop in 30 days 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of −1.8%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for FIL is −1.1%.

No better than chance17

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 97% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 202010last on 7 Dec 2025

Higher after 7 days50%ordinary: 45%

Median 7-day move−1.8%ordinary: −1.1%

Could be luck97%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−12% / +16%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary FIL drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 10 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	10	50%	−0.3%	−5.0% to +6.8%	−0.2%	−0.1%	98%	16
3 days	10	70%	+2.3%	−0.2% to +6.6%	−0.4%	+2.7%	62%	24
7 days	10	50%	−1.8%	−8.6% to +10.0%	−1.1%	−0.8%	97%	17
14 days	10	40%	−1.4%	−10.4% to +3.9%	−2.7%	+1.4%	96%	17
30 days	10	40%	−19.6%	−27.5% to +0.2%	−6.2%	−13.5%	63%	28

“Ordinary median” is the median move of FIL over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 84%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−9.9%ordinary FIL: −8.2%

1 case in 4 dipped past−13.2%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way50%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+9.8%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−2.1%ordinary: −1.4%

Ahead after costs50%ordinary: 44%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
7 Dec 2025	$1.46	+3.4%	−9.6%	+9.5%
3 Jun 2022	$7.39	+0.9%	−7.7%	−28.3%
25 May 2022	$8.17	−6.6%	−8.9%	−25.1%
18 May 2022	$7.61	+7.9%	+7.4%	−29.8%
11 May 2022	$8.62	−5.9%	−11.7%	−20.9%
24 Jan 2022	$18.42	−1.5%	+15.6%	+0.2%
2 Jun 2021	$70.09	+27.7%	+10.9%	−18.4%
26 May 2021	$74.50	−4.1%	−5.9%	−30.2%
19 May 2021	$65.28	+35.8%	+14.1%	+0.6%
14 Nov 2020	$29.28	−5.3%	+2.3%	+0.2%

The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% below the close 30 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
THORChain	21	62%	+7.1%	+7.4%	Weak evidence
Fetch.ai	21	52%	+1.2%	+2.4%	No better than chance
Harmony	22	45%	−0.6%	+0.7%	No better than chance

50% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins

Other Filecoin signals

10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 82 cases 50% rise in 30 daysWeak evidence · 36 cases Bitcoin drops 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 62 cases Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in controlWeak evidence · 42 cases 7% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 93 cases 5% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 139 cases

Full Filecoin record

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