What happens to Solana after a 50% drop in 30 days?

Since 2020, Solana has shown a 50% drop in 30 days 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of −0.8%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for SOL is −0.3%.

No better than chance16

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 99% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 202010last on 1 Dec 2022

Higher after 7 days50%ordinary: 49%

Median 7-day move−0.8%ordinary: −0.3%

Could be luck99%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−17% / +17%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary SOL drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 10 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	10	50%	−1.7%	−5.0% to +4.5%	0.0%	−1.7%	50%	24
3 days	10	70%	+1.0%	−2.4% to +3.5%	0.0%	+1.0%	89%	18
7 days	10	50%	−0.8%	−5.0% to +1.3%	−0.3%	−0.5%	99%	16
14 days	10	40%	−1.7%	−7.5% to +3.4%	−0.2%	−1.5%	96%	17
30 days	10	10%	−16.2%	−23.4% to −5.7%	+0.4%	−16.6%	67%	28

“Ordinary median” is the median move of SOL over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 91%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−12.5%ordinary SOL: −8.0%

1 case in 4 dipped past−14.4%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way80%ordinary: 41%

Typical best point+10.4%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−1.1%ordinary: −0.6%

Ahead after costs50%ordinary: 48%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
1 Dec 2022	$13.51	+1.5%	+1.3%	−26.2%
24 Nov 2022	$14.59	−3.8%	−7.4%	−21.5%
16 Nov 2022	$14.27	−4.3%	+0.6%	−14.2%
9 Nov 2022	$14.08	+25.4%	+1.3%	−3.5%
2 Jun 2022	$40.85	−6.3%	−2.2%	−18.3%
26 May 2022	$43.44	−5.2%	−6.0%	−2.8%
19 May 2022	$52.20	−5.3%	−16.8%	−38.7%
12 May 2022	$44.64	+9.6%	+16.9%	−24.0%
22 Jan 2022	$94.54	+5.5%	+1.7%	−12.2%
29 Oct 2020	$1.43	+0.4%	−2.2%	+31.7%

The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% below the close 30 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
THORChain	21	62%	+7.1%	+7.4%	Weak evidence
Fetch.ai	21	52%	+1.2%	+2.4%	No better than chance
Harmony	22	45%	−0.6%	+0.7%	No better than chance

50% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins

Other Solana signals

Breakout to a 90-day highStrong evidence · 28 cases 100% rise in 30 daysSome evidence · 23 cases Volume spike on a green daySome evidence · 25 cases 20% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 41 cases 10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 71 cases 50% rise in 30 daysWeak evidence · 54 cases

Full Solana record

Want to know the moment this fires again?

New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.

See today's signals