What happens to Gala after a 50% drop in 30 days?

Since 2021, Gala has shown a 50% drop in 30 days 7 times. In the 7 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 29% of the time, with a median move of −6.8%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for GALA is −3.0%.

Too few cases

With 7 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20217last on 4 Jul 2024

Higher after 7 days29%ordinary: 40%

Median 7-day move−6.8%ordinary: −3.0%

Could be luck49%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−16% / +6%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary GALA drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 7 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	7	71%	+1.3%	−2.3% to +3.8%	−0.3%	+1.6%	42%
3 days	7	29%	−6.3%	−11.7% to +1.9%	−1.1%	−5.2%	14%
7 days	7	29%	−6.8%	−9.4% to −0.7%	−3.0%	−3.8%	49%
14 days	7	43%	−2.5%	−14.3% to +8.1%	−6.1%	+3.6%	62%
30 days	7	29%	−24.2%	−27.5% to −0.6%	−12.6%	−11.6%	29%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of GALA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 49%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−15.5%ordinary GALA: −10.1%

1 case in 4 dipped past−22.2%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way71%ordinary: 50%

Typical best point+7.6%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−7.1%ordinary: −3.3%

Ahead after costs29%ordinary: 39%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
4 Jul 2024	$0.02242	−5.9%	−6.8%	−17.1%
3 Jun 2022	$0.07360	+1.3%	−6.0%	−27.9%
23 May 2022	$0.08031	+4.0%	+4.7%	−32.5%
16 May 2022	$0.08621	+3.6%	−6.8%	−24.2%
9 May 2022	$0.1030	+5.7%	−16.3%	−27.1%
28 Jan 2022	$0.1899	+1.3%	+6.2%	+22.1%
21 Jan 2022	$0.2158	−16.0%	−12.0%	+15.9%

The 12 most recent. All 7 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% below the close 30 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
THORChain	21	62%	+7.1%	+7.4%	Weak evidence
Fetch.ai	21	52%	+1.2%	+2.4%	No better than chance
Harmony	22	45%	−0.6%	+0.7%	No better than chance

50% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins

Other Gala signals

Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 49 cases Extreme sell pressureWeak evidence · 53 cases 15% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 26 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 86 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 74 cases Bitcoin drops 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 46 cases

Full Gala record

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