What happens to Fetch.ai after a 50% drop in 30 days?

Since 2019, Fetch.ai has shown a 50% drop in 30 days 21 times. In the 21 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 52% of the time, with a median move of +1.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for FET is −1.2%.

No better than chance14

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 86% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 201921last on 4 Nov 2025

Higher after 7 days52%ordinary: 47%

Median 7-day move+1.2%ordinary: −1.2%

Could be luck86%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−22% / +56%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary FET drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 21 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	21	67%	+1.8%	−3.2% to +5.8%	−0.3%	+2.1%	35%	19
3 days	21	43%	−1.6%	−6.1% to +4.7%	−0.4%	−1.1%	85%	13
7 days	21	52%	+1.2%	−5.2% to +15.5%	−1.2%	+2.4%	86%	14
14 days	21	38%	−5.4%	−9.9% to +14.4%	−2.0%	−3.4%	90%	14
30 days	21	43%	−7.7%	−29.8% to +22.2%	−4.5%	−3.2%	96%	12

“Ordinary median” is the median move of FET over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 51%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−15.2%ordinary FET: −10.3%

1 case in 4 dipped past−20.0%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way62%ordinary: 51%

Typical best point+13.1%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+0.9%ordinary: −1.5%

Ahead after costs52%ordinary: 46%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 12 the gap over 7 days was +9.4%, and in the later 9 it was −2.3%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
4 Nov 2025	$0.2116	+5.8%	+55.9%	+17.9%
28 Oct 2025	$0.2574	+1.8%	−17.8%	+2.1%
21 Oct 2025	$0.2439	−3.2%	+5.5%	+29.2%
14 Oct 2025	$0.3145	−7.6%	−22.4%	−7.7%
4 Feb 2025	$0.7880	−3.3%	−3.6%	−20.2%
28 Jun 2022	$0.07610	+0.8%	−2.2%	+14.5%
16 Jun 2022	$0.08280	−3.4%	−1.1%	−1.9%
25 May 2022	$0.1592	−9.7%	−3.8%	−43.5%
18 May 2022	$0.1679	+7.3%	−5.2%	−52.4%
9 May 2022	$0.1943	+1.9%	−5.4%	−22.6%
27 May 2021	$0.2959	+6.0%	+37.6%	−36.8%
22 Sep 2020	$0.05516	−14.2%	+29.4%	−11.1%

The 12 most recent. All 21 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% below the close 30 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
THORChain	21	62%	+7.1%	+7.4%	Weak evidence
Harmony	22	45%	−0.6%	+0.7%	No better than chance

50% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins

Other Fetch.ai signals

100% rise in 30 daysStrong evidence · 33 cases 50% rise in 30 daysStrong evidence · 78 cases Breakout to a 90-day highStrong evidence · 32 cases 30% drop in 7 daysSome evidence · 26 cases 15% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 54 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 55 cases

Full Fetch.ai record

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