Arweave · AR/USDT · daily
What happens to Arweave after a 50% drop in 30 days?
Since 2021, Arweave has shown a 50% drop in 30 days 12 times. In the 12 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 58% of the time, with a median move of +1.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AR is −1.2%.
Weak evidence36
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 85% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 12 | 75% | +3.9% | +0.3% to +5.2% | −0.3% | +4.2% | 8.2% | 80 |
| 3 days | 12 | 58% | +3.9% | −3.8% to +5.0% | −0.8% | +4.7% | 40% | 18 |
| 7 days | 12 | 58% | +1.6% | −4.2% to +8.2% | −1.2% | +2.8% | 85% | 36 |
| 14 days | 12 | 42% | −4.4% | −13.9% to +21.6% | −3.1% | −1.3% | 96% | 32 |
| 30 days | 12 | 50% | −1.7% | −19.6% to +14.8% | −6.2% | +4.5% | 93% | 10 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AR over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 48%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was +3.4%, and in the later 5 it was +2.3%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 2026 | $1.62 | 0.0% | +3.1% | +3.7% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | $1.92 | +4.7% | +1.0% | −4.2% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | $2.01 | +5.0% | −4.5% | −22.4% |
| 7 Dec 2025 | $3.92 | +3.1% | −4.3% | +5.4% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | $22.50 | −0.8% | +7.3% | +0.7% |
| 14 Jun 2022 | $8.77 | +11.2% | +11.1% | +63.5% |
| 3 Jun 2022 | $12.49 | +2.6% | −1.2% | −6.8% |
| 27 May 2022 | $13.04 | +0.5% | −4.2% | −24.7% |
| 18 May 2022 | $14.25 | +8.7% | +2.2% | −42.6% |
| 9 May 2022 | $17.04 | +5.2% | −9.2% | −18.7% |
| 13 Dec 2021 | $36.30 | +5.3% | +56.2% | +43.3% |
| 19 Jul 2021 | $8.16 | −11.7% | +14.1% | +309.6% |
The 12 most recent. All 12 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 50% below the close 30 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 THORChain | 21 | 62% | +7.1% | +7.4% | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 21 | 52% | +1.2% | +2.4% | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 22 | 45% | −0.6% | +0.7% | No better than chance |
50% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins
Other Arweave signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals