Bitcoin · BTC/USDT · daily
What happens to Bitcoin after a 20% drop in 3 days?
Since 2017, Bitcoin has shown a 20% drop in 3 days 9 times. In the 8 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 75% of the time, with a median move of +6.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BTC is +0.5%.
Too few cases
With 8 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 8 | 75% | +10.4% | +0.6% to +11.0% | 0.0% | +10.3% | under 0.1% | |
| 3 days | 8 | 88% | +5.4% | +2.6% to +11.7% | +0.3% | +5.2% | 1.1% | |
| 7 days | 8 | 75% | +6.2% | +3.3% to +13.0% | +0.5% | +5.7% | 5.1% | |
| 14 days | 8 | 75% | +5.4% | +0.3% to +30.5% | +0.8% | +4.6% | 25% | |
| 30 days | 8 | 50% | +2.3% | −8.7% to +16.4% | +1.7% | +0.6% | 93% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of BTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 5.1%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | $62,910 | +12.2% | +5.3% | +6.9% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $15,923 | +10.5% | +4.6% | +7.6% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $22,487 | −1.6% | −8.5% | −10.0% |
| 19 May 2021 | $36,690 | +10.5% | +7.0% | −2.4% |
| 12 Mar 2020 | $4,800 | +16.2% | +28.4% | +43.3% |
| 5 Feb 2018 | $6,940 | +10.3% | +28.3% | +42.8% |
| 16 Jan 2018 | $10,900 | +0.8% | −0.9% | −8.3% |
| 22 Dec 2017 | $13,327 | −0.2% | +7.9% | −13.5% |
| 14 Sep 2017 | $3,189 | open | open | open |
The 12 most recent. All 9 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 20% below the close 3 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reserve Rights | 39 | 54% | +4.2% | +5.6% | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 34 | 35% | −6.7% | −5.4% | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 30 | 53% | +2.6% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 34 | 32% | −3.9% | −2.8% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 24 | 63% | +5.5% | +5.4% | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 21 | 71% | +3.2% | +4.5% | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 24 | 67% | +2.6% | +2.8% | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 25 | 56% | +1.3% | +2.4% | Weak evidence |
20% drop in 3 days across all 94 coins
Other Bitcoin signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
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