Bitcoin · BTC/USDT · daily
What happens to Bitcoin after RSI falling below 30?
Since 2017, Bitcoin has shown RSI falling below 30 31 times. In the 29 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 59% of the time, with a median move of +2.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BTC is +0.5%.
Weak evidence46
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 64% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 30 | 47% | −0.4% | −2.2% to +3.7% | 0.0% | −0.5% | 49% | 20 |
| 3 days | 29 | 48% | −1.6% | −4.5% to +5.6% | +0.3% | −1.9% | 27% | 24 |
| 7 days | 29 | 59% | +2.3% | −2.7% to +7.4% | +0.5% | +1.8% | 64% | 46 |
| 14 days | 29 | 45% | −1.9% | −6.5% to +10.0% | +0.8% | −2.7% | 69% | 45 |
| 30 days | 29 | 52% | +0.4% | −6.5% to +7.6% | +1.7% | −1.3% | 96% | 16 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of BTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 20%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 17 the gap over 7 days was +2.8%, and in the later 12 it was +0.3%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | $71,460 | −4.4% | open | open |
| 2 Jun 2026 | $66,761 | −3.9% | −7.5% | −7.8% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | $66,272 | +3.9% | +1.1% | +7.5% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | $78,741 | −2.3% | −12.0% | −12.6% |
| 17 Nov 2025 | $92,215 | +0.8% | −4.2% | −6.5% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | $88,680 | −5.0% | −1.6% | −1.6% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | $54,019 | +3.7% | +9.9% | +7.3% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | $57,050 | −0.7% | +0.5% | +6.4% |
| 24 Jun 2024 | $60,293 | +2.5% | +4.3% | +8.4% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | $26,623 | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.2% |
| 9 Mar 2023 | $20,362 | −1.0% | +22.8% | +37.2% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $15,923 | +10.5% | +4.6% | +7.6% |
The 12 most recent. All 31 are in the open data file.
The rule
14-day RSI closes below 30 after being at or above it the day before. An RSI reading under 30 is the most widely quoted "oversold" signal in technical analysis.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stellar | 30 | 70% | +4.7% | +5.8% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Conflux | 26 | 73% | +6.9% | +8.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Radworks | 20 | 70% | +6.0% | +6.9% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Ethereum Classic | 37 | 62% | +2.0% | +3.0% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 32 | 69% | +2.4% | +3.4% | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 33 | 58% | +2.6% | +3.9% | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 26 | 69% | +5.1% | +5.2% | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 36 | 56% | +1.0% | +2.3% | Weak evidence |
RSI drops below 30 across all 94 coins
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