Bitcoin · BTC/USDT · daily
What happens to Bitcoin after a 10% daily drop?
Since 2017, Bitcoin has shown a 10% daily drop 25 times. In the 24 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 58% of the time, with a median move of +2.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BTC is +0.5%.
Weak evidence43
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 69% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 24 | 67% | +2.3% | −0.9% to +7.5% | 0.0% | +2.2% | 0.5% | 92 |
| 3 days | 24 | 54% | +0.9% | −4.2% to +3.7% | +0.3% | +0.6% | 80% | 15 |
| 7 days | 24 | 58% | +2.2% | −3.3% to +7.2% | +0.5% | +1.8% | 69% | 43 |
| 14 days | 24 | 58% | +3.3% | −4.7% to +9.9% | +0.8% | +2.5% | 74% | 18 |
| 30 days | 24 | 54% | +1.1% | −10.7% to +9.4% | +1.7% | −0.6% | 97% | 38 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of BTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 24%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 14 the gap over 7 days was +1.8%, and in the later 10 it was +1.5%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | $62,910 | +12.2% | +5.3% | +6.9% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $15,923 | +10.5% | +4.6% | +7.6% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | $20,834 | +1.5% | −2.8% | −6.8% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $22,487 | −1.6% | −8.5% | −10.0% |
| 9 May 2022 | $30,076 | +3.1% | −0.7% | +0.4% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | $36,445 | −3.8% | +3.5% | +5.3% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | $46,864 | −1.7% | +0.5% | +14.8% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | $31,609 | +2.8% | +9.1% | +1.7% |
| 19 May 2021 | $36,690 | +10.5% | +7.0% | −2.4% |
| 12 May 2021 | $49,631 | +0.1% | −26.1% | −24.8% |
| 21 Jan 2021 | $30,850 | +6.8% | +8.2% | +81.0% |
| 3 Sep 2020 | $10,141 | +3.0% | +1.9% | +4.0% |
The 12 most recent. All 25 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily close at least 10% below the previous close. A double-digit loss in one day is the classic "buy the dip or run" moment.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Request | 22 | 23% | −7.4% | −6.9% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Stellar | 44 | 57% | +3.1% | +4.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Basic Attention Token | 56 | 66% | +4.1% | +4.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Uniswap | 48 | 71% | +3.8% | +4.2% | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 54 | 59% | +3.1% | +4.0% | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 48 | 25% | −5.4% | −3.9% | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 31 | 23% | −8.2% | −6.3% | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 39 | 49% | −3.4% | −3.2% | Weak evidence |
10% drop in a day across all 94 coins
Other Bitcoin signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals