Bitcoin · BTC/USDT · daily
What happens to Bitcoin after a 40% drop in 30 days?
Since 2017, Bitcoin has shown a 40% drop in 30 days 9 times. In the 9 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 67% of the time, with a median move of +2.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BTC is +0.5%.
Too few cases
With 9 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 9 | 44% | −0.4% | −1.7% to +0.8% | 0.0% | −0.4% | 57% | |
| 3 days | 9 | 67% | +2.5% | −6.8% to +9.3% | +0.3% | +2.3% | 18% | |
| 7 days | 9 | 67% | +2.3% | −0.9% to +17.0% | +0.5% | +1.8% | 45% | |
| 14 days | 9 | 56% | +9.7% | −5.8% to +16.7% | +0.8% | +8.9% | 4.5% | |
| 30 days | 9 | 78% | +4.5% | +0.6% to +29.8% | +1.7% | +2.9% | 65% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of BTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 45%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jun 2021 | $33,553 | −0.5% | +20.8% | +0.9% |
| 12 Mar 2020 | $4,800 | +16.2% | +28.4% | +43.3% |
| 12 Dec 2018 | $3,445 | −4.1% | +6.3% | +4.5% |
| 5 Dec 2018 | $3,770 | −6.9% | −8.6% | +0.6% |
| 26 Nov 2018 | $3,862 | +0.3% | +0.6% | −2.2% |
| 4 Apr 2018 | $6,796 | −0.4% | +2.3% | +42.9% |
| 9 Feb 2018 | $8,684 | −1.7% | +17.0% | +9.8% |
| 2 Feb 2018 | $8,873 | +3.7% | −2.1% | +29.8% |
| 16 Jan 2018 | $10,900 | +0.8% | −0.9% | −8.3% |
The 12 most recent. All 9 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 40% below the close 30 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Theta Network | 28 | 61% | +8.0% | +8.6% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 25 | 68% | +7.3% | +8.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Kava | 35 | 71% | +5.9% | +6.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Neo | 36 | 67% | +3.4% | +4.0% | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 26 | 65% | +4.8% | +5.6% | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 23 | 65% | +4.6% | +5.4% | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 23 | 52% | +5.4% | +6.6% | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 25 | 56% | +3.5% | +4.8% | Weak evidence |
40% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins
Other Bitcoin signals
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