Bitcoin · BTC/USDT · daily
What happens to Bitcoin after a 30% rise in 7 days?
Since 2017, Bitcoin has shown a 30% rise in 7 days 15 times. In the 15 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 60% of the time, with a median move of +1.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BTC is +0.5%.
Weak evidence37
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 83% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 15 | 47% | −0.8% | −2.7% to +1.7% | 0.0% | −0.8% | 41% | 41 |
| 3 days | 15 | 53% | +1.0% | −4.0% to +3.9% | +0.3% | +0.7% | 82% | 11 |
| 7 days | 15 | 60% | +1.9% | −4.4% to +3.5% | +0.5% | +1.4% | 83% | 37 |
| 14 days | 15 | 60% | +4.9% | −10.2% to +16.1% | +0.8% | +4.1% | 64% | 17 |
| 30 days | 15 | 67% | +10.2% | −8.5% to +16.4% | +1.7% | +8.5% | 64% | 43 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of BTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 46%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 9 the gap over 7 days was +1.4%, and in the later 6 it was +0.7%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2024 | $88,648 | −0.8% | +2.0% | +14.1% |
| 17 Mar 2023 | $27,395 | −1.8% | +0.2% | +10.6% |
| 6 Oct 2021 | $55,315 | −2.8% | +3.7% | +10.2% |
| 27 Jul 2021 | $39,458 | +1.4% | −3.2% | +18.7% |
| 8 Feb 2021 | $46,375 | +0.1% | +3.3% | +20.4% |
| 7 Jan 2021 | $39,432 | +2.9% | −0.7% | −0.6% |
| 25 Jun 2019 | $11,821 | +10.8% | −8.3% | −16.4% |
| 13 May 2019 | $7,791 | +2.0% | +1.9% | +4.3% |
| 20 Feb 2018 | $11,201 | −6.8% | −5.6% | −22.1% |
| 6 Jan 2018 | $17,070 | −5.4% | −16.8% | −59.3% |
| 16 Dec 2017 | $19,103 | −1.3% | −30.4% | −29.1% |
| 8 Dec 2017 | $15,880 | −7.7% | +10.5% | +1.7% |
The 12 most recent. All 15 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 30% above the close 7 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DODO | 24 | 29% | −12.9% | −12.0% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Stellar | 28 | 61% | +5.7% | +6.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Audius | 33 | 33% | −8.2% | −7.0% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 29 | 34% | −10.3% | −8.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Tellor | 42 | 40% | −8.1% | −7.7% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 AVA (Travala) | 22 | 32% | −9.1% | −8.7% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Livepeer | 27 | 33% | −9.0% | −7.2% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Horizen | 35 | 37% | −7.3% | −6.6% | Some evidence · leans down |
30% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins
Other Bitcoin signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
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