Bitcoin · BTC/USDT · daily
What happens to Bitcoin after a 20% rise in 7 days?
Since 2017, Bitcoin has shown a 20% rise in 7 days 37 times. In the 37 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 65% of the time, with a median move of +2.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BTC is +0.5%.
Weak evidence51
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 46% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 37 | 38% | −0.8% | −1.8% to +1.6% | 0.0% | −0.8% | 15% | 72 |
| 3 days | 37 | 59% | +1.3% | −3.0% to +5.2% | +0.3% | +1.0% | 54% | 49 |
| 7 days | 37 | 65% | +2.7% | −5.0% to +8.8% | +0.5% | +2.2% | 46% | 51 |
| 14 days | 37 | 65% | +6.0% | −4.1% to +16.0% | +0.8% | +5.3% | 20% | 65 |
| 30 days | 37 | 62% | +7.4% | −9.5% to +19.3% | +1.7% | +5.7% | 57% | 51 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of BTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 7.6%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 22 the gap over 7 days was +2.9%, and in the later 15 it was +2.2%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | $78,338 | −1.6% | −0.6% | +3.6% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | $88,648 | −0.8% | +2.0% | +14.1% |
| 28 Feb 2024 | $62,432 | −2.1% | +5.8% | +11.9% |
| 25 Oct 2023 | $34,496 | −1.0% | +2.7% | +9.3% |
| 16 Mar 2023 | $24,999 | +9.6% | +13.2% | +21.2% |
| 14 Jan 2023 | $20,955 | −0.4% | +8.7% | +3.9% |
| 19 Jul 2022 | $23,397 | −0.7% | −9.2% | −0.9% |
| 9 Feb 2022 | $44,373 | −2.0% | −1.1% | −12.7% |
| 5 Oct 2021 | $51,472 | +7.5% | +8.8% | +19.3% |
| 26 Jul 2021 | $37,238 | +6.0% | +5.1% | +31.5% |
| 14 Jun 2021 | $40,516 | −0.9% | −22.0% | −19.0% |
| 13 Mar 2021 | $61,188 | −3.6% | −5.0% | −2.2% |
The 12 most recent. All 37 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 20% above the close 7 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DODO | 46 | 35% | −7.9% | −7.1% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Ravencoin | 49 | 39% | −7.1% | −5.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Internet Computer | 41 | 34% | −8.1% | −6.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Phala Network | 46 | 30% | −7.6% | −6.1% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 26 | 15% | −9.7% | −8.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Terra Classic | 24 | 25% | −9.0% | −7.4% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 21 | 10% | −9.3% | −8.8% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Horizen | 72 | 42% | −6.0% | −5.3% | Strong evidence · leans down |
20% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins
Other Bitcoin signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals