Bitcoin · BTC/USDT · daily
What happens to Bitcoin after a capitulation day?
Since 2017, Bitcoin has shown a capitulation day 19 times. In the 19 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 53% of the time, with a median move of +0.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BTC is +0.5%.
No better than chance10
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 100% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 19 | 53% | +0.8% | −1.8% to +4.2% | 0.0% | +0.8% | 40% | 17 |
| 3 days | 19 | 58% | +2.1% | −4.0% to +8.0% | +0.3% | +1.9% | 40% | 19 |
| 7 days | 19 | 53% | +0.5% | −2.0% to +7.4% | +0.5% | +0.1% | 100% | 10 |
| 14 days | 19 | 42% | −2.6% | −8.3% to +5.7% | +0.8% | −3.4% | 68% | 42 |
| 30 days | 19 | 42% | −2.4% | −11.4% to +7.1% | +1.7% | −4.1% | 84% | 40 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of BTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 97%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 11 the gap over 7 days was +3.8%, and in the later 8 it was −1.6%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | $62,910 | +12.2% | +5.3% | +6.9% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $112,775 | −1.9% | −5.6% | −7.1% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | $54,019 | +3.7% | +9.9% | +7.3% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | $26,623 | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.2% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | $18,547 | −14.1% | −8.9% | −7.1% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $22,487 | −1.6% | −8.5% | −10.0% |
| 9 May 2022 | $30,076 | +3.1% | −0.7% | +0.4% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | $46,864 | −1.7% | +0.5% | +14.8% |
| 19 May 2021 | $36,690 | +10.5% | +7.0% | −2.4% |
| 11 Jan 2021 | $35,404 | −3.8% | +3.5% | +26.6% |
| 12 Mar 2020 | $4,800 | +16.2% | +28.4% | +43.3% |
| 24 Sep 2019 | $8,493 | −0.7% | −2.4% | −12.7% |
The 12 most recent. All 19 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily close at least 7% below the previous close on volume at least 2.5× the previous 30-day average. A steep fall on very heavy volume is the textbook picture of capitulation, when the last holders give up.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Neo | 24 | 42% | −6.7% | −6.1% | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 25 | 40% | −5.8% | −5.3% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 29 | 48% | −0.2% | +0.8% | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 20 | 40% | −3.7% | −2.3% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 24 | 58% | +6.0% | +5.8% | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 21 | 43% | −4.3% | −3.4% | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 27 | 52% | +1.2% | +2.1% | No better than chance |
 Dash | 20 | 55% | +2.9% | +3.4% | No better than chance |
Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume across all 94 coins
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