Death cross: does it work in crypto?
The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bearish signals in any market. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 564 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence0 of 80 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance7 of 8coins
Scored cases564since 2017
The rule. 50-day moving average closes below the 200-day moving average after being above it.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BNB | 12 | 83% | +6.2% | +0.5% | +5.8% | 35% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 10 | 70% | +6.2% | −0.2% | +6.4% | 42% | 30 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 10 | 20% | −5.6% | −0.7% | −5.0% | 69% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 10 | 40% | −4.2% | −1.0% | −3.1% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 10 | 20% | −1.9% | −0.4% | −1.4% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 11 | 55% | +1.0% | −1.1% | +2.1% | 85% | 11 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 11 | 55% | +0.9% | −0.8% | +1.7% | 88% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 11 | 55% | +0.8% | −0.5% | +1.3% | 93% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 9 | 33% | −0.5% | +0.5% | −1.0% | 69% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum | 9 | 78% | +4.0% | +0.3% | +3.7% | 29% | Too few cases | |
 Solana | 6 | 83% | +5.0% | −0.3% | +5.3% | 34% | Too few cases | |
 Dogecoin | 8 | 50% | −0.7% | −1.0% | +0.3% | 93% | Too few cases | |
 Cardano | 8 | 75% | +6.6% | −0.8% | +7.5% | 9.2% | Too few cases | |
 Avalanche | 6 | 17% | −7.0% | −0.7% | −6.3% | 24% | Too few cases | |
 Chainlink | 8 | 63% | +1.7% | +0.1% | +1.6% | 73% | Too few cases | |
 TRON | 9 | 56% | +1.7% | +0.7% | +1.0% | 64% | Too few cases | |
 Polkadot | 6 | 33% | −4.4% | −1.0% | −3.4% | 48% | Too few cases | |
 Bitcoin Cash | 8 | 38% | −2.2% | −0.2% | −2.0% | 57% | Too few cases | |
 NEAR Protocol | 5 | 60% | +4.6% | −0.6% | +5.2% | 47% | Too few cases | |
 Cosmos | 8 | 25% | −7.4% | −0.9% | −6.5% | 15% | Too few cases | |
 Filecoin | 4 | 25% | −5.3% | −1.1% | −4.2% | 47% | Too few cases | |
 Aptos | 3 | 67% | +0.4% | −1.5% | +1.9% | 79% | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 3 | 67% | +0.2% | −1.7% | +2.0% | 77% | Too few cases | |
 Optimism | 5 | 80% | +1.9% | −1.4% | +3.4% | 61% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 4 | 75% | +3.3% | −1.5% | +4.8% | 46% | Too few cases | |
 Aave | 6 | 33% | −3.9% | −0.1% | −3.9% | 50% | Too few cases | |
 Zcash | 8 | 50% | −1.3% | +0.1% | −1.4% | 77% | Too few cases | |
 Pepe | 3 | 33% | −2.1% | −1.4% | −0.7% | 91% | Too few cases | |
 Injective | 7 | 57% | +3.2% | −0.1% | +3.3% | 58% | Too few cases | |
 Kava | 8 | 63% | +2.3% | −0.6% | +2.9% | 50% | Too few cases | |
| Worldcoin | 4 | 75% | +3.8% | −2.7% | +6.5% | 40% | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 5 | 60% | +0.2% | −1.3% | +1.5% | 68% | Too few cases | |
 Hedera | 7 | 29% | −3.6% | −1.2% | −2.5% | 59% | Too few cases | |
 Fetch.ai | 8 | 75% | +5.1% | −1.2% | +6.4% | 27% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 2 | 50% | +7.2% | −2.7% | +9.9% | 33% | Too few cases | |
 DODO | 5 | 60% | +6.1% | −0.8% | +7.0% | 28% | Too few cases | |
 Internet Computer | 3 | 33% | −6.2% | −1.3% | −4.9% | 49% | Too few cases | |
 Shiba Inu | 5 | 20% | −5.8% | −1.5% | −4.3% | 36% | Too few cases | |
 PancakeSwap | 5 | 0% | −3.9% | −0.8% | −3.1% | 51% | Too few cases | |
 Arweave | 4 | 25% | −24.4% | −1.2% | −23.2% | 1.2% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 3 | 0% | −5.4% | −2.2% | −3.2% | 68% | Too few cases | |
 Raydium | 4 | 75% | +2.4% | −0.9% | +3.3% | 63% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 4 | 75% | +14.7% | −0.3% | +15.0% | 6.0% | Too few cases | |
 Harmony | 6 | 17% | −12.1% | −1.3% | −10.8% | 11% | Too few cases | |
 Curve DAO | 8 | 50% | −1.0% | −0.5% | −0.4% | 94% | Too few cases | |
 JUST | 7 | 43% | −2.3% | +0.6% | −3.0% | 37% | Too few cases | |
 Algorand | 8 | 63% | +1.8% | −1.0% | +2.8% | 55% | Too few cases | |
 Stacks | 7 | 43% | −2.1% | −0.6% | −1.5% | 78% | Too few cases | |
 Horizen | 8 | 88% | +7.7% | −0.7% | +8.4% | 12% | Too few cases | |
 Lido DAO | 4 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.2% | +0.6% | 93% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 3 | 0% | −13.1% | −0.5% | −12.6% | 17% | Too few cases | |
 The Sandbox | 6 | 67% | +4.3% | −1.3% | +5.6% | 29% | Too few cases | |
 Conflux | 5 | 0% | −8.1% | −1.6% | −6.5% | 32% | Too few cases | |
 ApeCoin | 5 | 40% | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.4% | 93% | Too few cases | |
 ORDI | 3 | 33% | −5.9% | −1.9% | −3.9% | 60% | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 3 | 67% | +13.6% | −1.6% | +15.2% | 3.6% | Too few cases | |
 Gala | 5 | 20% | −5.1% | −3.0% | −2.1% | 74% | Too few cases | |
 DeXe | 4 | 50% | −1.0% | −0.3% | −0.7% | 89% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 3 | 0% | −7.2% | −2.0% | −5.3% | 48% | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 3 | 33% | −5.6% | −2.2% | −3.3% | 48% | Too few cases | |
 VeChain | 9 | 67% | +5.5% | −0.8% | +6.4% | 16% | Too few cases | |
 ConstitutionDAO | 3 | 67% | +5.8% | −1.3% | +7.1% | 41% | Too few cases | |
 Basic Attention Token | 8 | 13% | −4.3% | −0.1% | −4.1% | 32% | Too few cases | |
 Audius | 5 | 80% | +2.2% | −1.2% | +3.4% | 50% | Too few cases | |
 dYdX | 7 | 71% | +3.8% | −1.7% | +5.5% | 32% | Too few cases | |
 Axie Infinity | 5 | 80% | +2.8% | −1.2% | +4.0% | 52% | Too few cases | |
 Reserve Rights | 6 | 33% | −9.8% | −1.3% | −8.5% | 22% | Too few cases | |
 The Graph | 4 | 25% | −2.7% | −1.8% | −0.9% | 88% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 3 | 0% | −7.9% | −2.5% | −5.3% | 51% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 3 | 0% | −10.3% | −0.3% | −10.0% | 2.5% | Too few cases | |
 Prom | 5 | 20% | −8.5% | −0.2% | −8.3% | 10% | Too few cases | |
| Convex Finance | 5 | 60% | +1.0% | −1.7% | +2.7% | 62% | Too few cases | |
 Phala Network | 5 | 40% | −0.2% | −1.5% | +1.3% | 81% | Too few cases | |
 Tellor | 8 | 50% | −0.8% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 95% | Too few cases | |
 COTI | 8 | 63% | +7.6% | −1.3% | +8.9% | 11% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 5 | 40% | −1.8% | −1.9% | +0.1% | 99% | Too few cases | |
 Lisk | 6 | 50% | +0.5% | −0.6% | +1.2% | 80% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum Name Service | 6 | 33% | −1.6% | −1.1% | −0.6% | 91% | Too few cases | |
 Radworks | 4 | 75% | +1.9% | −0.9% | +2.8% | 56% | Too few cases | |
 Oasis | 5 | 80% | +11.0% | −1.4% | +12.4% | 9.1% | Too few cases | |
 THORChain | 7 | 29% | −9.6% | −0.3% | −9.3% | 13% | Too few cases | |
 Immutable | 4 | 25% | −13.9% | −1.7% | −12.2% | 9.5% | Too few cases | |
 Neo | 7 | 57% | +1.6% | −0.6% | +2.2% | 63% | Too few cases | |
 Theta Network | 7 | 43% | −5.3% | −0.6% | −4.7% | 37% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 3 | 33% | −9.5% | −3.4% | −6.1% | 42% | Too few cases | |
 AVA (Travala) | 6 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.4% | +0.4% | 94% | Too few cases | |
 Gitcoin | 5 | 40% | −13.0% | −1.2% | −11.8% | 10% | Too few cases | |
 Request | 5 | 60% | +2.0% | −0.5% | +2.5% | 51% | Too few cases | |
 1inch | 5 | 20% | −3.6% | −1.3% | −2.3% | 71% | Too few cases | |
 Livepeer | 4 | 25% | −4.9% | −1.7% | −3.1% | 63% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 3 | 33% | −7.6% | −1.6% | −6.0% | 39% | Too few cases | |
 Ravencoin | 9 | 33% | −4.1% | −1.3% | −2.8% | 46% | Too few cases | |
 IOTA | 9 | 56% | +1.9% | −0.8% | +2.7% | 49% | Too few cases | |
 Sun | 7 | 43% | −0.5% | −0.4% | −0.2% | 95% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.