Aave · AAVE/USDT · daily
What happens to Aave after a death cross?
Since 2020, Aave has shown a death cross 6 times. In the 6 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 33% of the time, with a median move of −3.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AAVE is −0.1%.
Too few cases
With 6 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 6 | 67% | +2.4% | −1.3% to +5.8% | −0.1% | +2.5% | 23% | |
| 3 days | 6 | 83% | +6.3% | +1.2% to +9.5% | −0.1% | +6.4% | 7.1% | |
| 7 days | 6 | 33% | −3.9% | −7.1% to +9.8% | −0.1% | −3.9% | 50% | |
| 14 days | 6 | 17% | −4.1% | −12.8% to −2.1% | −0.7% | −3.5% | 65% | |
| 30 days | 6 | 50% | −3.0% | −17.9% to +4.5% | −2.1% | −0.9% | 95% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AAVE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 50%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2025 | $228.5 | −2.4% | −8.9% | −22.3% |
| 22 Mar 2025 | $179.8 | +2.9% | −6.5% | −20.5% |
| 14 May 2024 | $80.44 | +7.0% | +20.8% | +4.1% |
| 25 May 2023 | $63.50 | +1.9% | −1.4% | −10.1% |
| 3 Oct 2021 | $310.6 | −3.2% | −7.3% | +4.6% |
| 3 Jul 2021 | $259.4 | +6.8% | +13.6% | +23.5% |
The 12 most recent. All 6 are in the open data file.
The rule
50-day moving average closes below the 200-day moving average after being above it. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bearish signals in any market.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
Other Aave signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals