Litecoin · LTC/USDT · daily
What happens to Litecoin after a death cross?
Since 2017, Litecoin has shown a death cross 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 70% of the time, with a median move of +6.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for LTC is −0.2%.
No better than chance30
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 42% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | 80% | +2.6% | +0.4% to +3.1% | 0.0% | +2.6% | 15% | 50 |
| 3 days | 10 | 80% | +4.0% | +0.8% to +6.9% | −0.1% | +4.1% | 33% | 30 |
| 7 days | 10 | 70% | +6.2% | −0.1% to +10.0% | −0.2% | +6.4% | 42% | 30 |
| 14 days | 10 | 50% | +1.6% | −7.1% to +12.4% | −0.6% | +2.2% | 94% | 18 |
| 30 days | 10 | 60% | +2.0% | −2.6% to +18.7% | −0.4% | +2.4% | 96% | 17 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of LTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 6.0%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2025 | $97.59 | −1.1% | −4.8% | −16.0% |
| 11 Apr 2025 | $76.19 | +3.2% | −0.2% | +31.4% |
| 5 Jul 2024 | $61.85 | +5.7% | +12.0% | +1.0% |
| 20 Aug 2023 | $65.25 | +2.7% | +0.2% | +3.1% |
| 20 Jun 2023 | $80.33 | +5.9% | +9.6% | +15.0% |
| 7 Jan 2022 | $131.4 | −1.5% | +10.1% | −2.9% |
| 29 Jun 2021 | $144.2 | 0.0% | −3.7% | −1.9% |
| 21 Oct 2020 | $52.98 | +2.6% | +5.3% | +55.8% |
| 1 Apr 2020 | $39.23 | +1.6% | +18.7% | +20.0% |
| 31 Aug 2019 | $64.24 | +2.6% | +7.1% | −12.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.
The rule
50-day moving average closes below the 200-day moving average after being above it. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bearish signals in any market.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
Other Litecoin signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals