BNB · BNB/USDT · daily
What happens to BNB after a death cross?
Since 2017, BNB has shown a death cross 12 times. In the 12 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 83% of the time, with a median move of +6.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BNB is +0.5%.
Weak evidence46
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 35% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 12 | 67% | +1.4% | −0.5% to +2.5% | +0.1% | +1.3% | 37% | 42 |
| 3 days | 12 | 83% | +2.4% | +1.1% to +4.9% | +0.2% | +2.2% | 52% | 41 |
| 7 days | 12 | 83% | +6.2% | +0.9% to +9.6% | +0.5% | +5.8% | 35% | 46 |
| 14 days | 12 | 75% | +5.8% | +0.3% to +15.0% | +1.3% | +4.5% | 74% | 39 |
| 30 days | 12 | 75% | +8.6% | −0.5% to +35.2% | +2.5% | +6.1% | 80% | 38 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of BNB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 3.7%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was +8.8%, and in the later 5 it was +1.6%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2025 | $852.5 | +1.1% | +6.8% | +5.9% |
| 15 Mar 2025 | $619.8 | −2.8% | +1.2% | −5.7% |
| 30 Aug 2024 | $535.2 | −0.4% | −9.0% | +11.3% |
| 16 Jun 2023 | $239.3 | +2.2% | +2.1% | +1.3% |
| 28 Dec 2022 | $244.5 | +0.7% | +5.9% | +26.0% |
| 4 Feb 2022 | $399.5 | +3.6% | +0.1% | −6.1% |
| 29 Jul 2021 | $317.0 | +1.8% | +6.6% | +53.4% |
| 16 Jul 2020 | $17.16 | −0.6% | +9.2% | +34.5% |
| 6 Jul 2020 | $16.31 | +3.0% | +12.8% | +42.7% |
| 1 Apr 2020 | $12.72 | +2.3% | +18.6% | +37.3% |
| 18 Sep 2019 | $22.20 | −3.0% | −27.8% | −17.9% |
| 23 Aug 2018 | $9.76 | +4.6% | +10.6% | +5.5% |
The 12 most recent. All 12 are in the open data file.
The rule
50-day moving average closes below the 200-day moving average after being above it. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bearish signals in any market.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
Other BNB signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
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