Uniswap · UNI/USDT · daily
What happens to Uniswap after a death cross?
Since 2020, Uniswap has shown a death cross 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 20% of the time, with a median move of −1.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for UNI is −0.4%.
No better than chance18
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 94% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | 60% | +0.2% | −2.6% to +3.4% | −0.1% | +0.3% | 92% | 17 |
| 3 days | 10 | 40% | −1.4% | −8.4% to +4.9% | −0.2% | −1.2% | 87% | 19 |
| 7 days | 10 | 20% | −1.9% | −12.5% to −0.6% | −0.4% | −1.4% | 94% | 18 |
| 14 days | 10 | 30% | −6.2% | −11.6% to +6.7% | −0.9% | −5.3% | 85% | 22 |
| 30 days | 10 | 30% | −3.6% | −10.8% to +0.9% | −1.4% | −2.2% | 97% | 17 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of UNI over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 74%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2025 | $6.51 | −2.7% | −20.2% | −3.2% |
| 8 Mar 2025 | $7.17 | −10.7% | −12.5% | −28.5% |
| 25 Jul 2024 | $7.29 | +5.3% | −1.4% | −5.1% |
| 27 May 2024 | $11.06 | +0.5% | −14.1% | −15.0% |
| 2 Sep 2023 | $4.40 | +0.3% | −1.8% | +1.3% |
| 12 Apr 2023 | $5.95 | +4.4% | −1.9% | −12.6% |
| 27 Nov 2022 | $5.41 | −2.2% | +15.9% | −4.0% |
| 18 Sep 2022 | $5.47 | +0.2% | +3.5% | +19.4% |
| 7 Dec 2021 | $17.14 | +9.3% | −12.5% | −0.5% |
| 4 Jul 2021 | $20.76 | −3.3% | −0.3% | +2.7% |
The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.
The rule
50-day moving average closes below the 200-day moving average after being above it. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bearish signals in any market.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
Other Uniswap signals
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