What happens to VeChain after a death cross?

Since 2018, VeChain has shown a death cross 9 times. In the 9 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 67% of the time, with a median move of +5.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for VET is −0.8%.

Too few cases

With 9 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20189last on 12 Mar 2025

Higher after 7 days67%ordinary: 46%

Median 7-day move+5.5%ordinary: −0.8%

Could be luck16%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−9% / +39%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary VET drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 9 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	9	22%	−2.5%	−6.6% to −0.9%	−0.1%	−2.5%	13%
3 days	9	67%	+3.9%	−1.4% to +4.7%	−0.3%	+4.2%	13%
7 days	9	67%	+5.5%	−4.9% to +11.6%	−0.8%	+6.4%	16%
14 days	9	56%	+7.7%	−9.3% to +23.9%	−1.7%	+9.4%	15%
30 days	9	44%	−9.2%	−17.3% to +53.1%	−4.4%	−4.8%	59%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of VET over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 16%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−9.0%ordinary VET: −8.2%

1 case in 4 dipped past−10.8%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way33%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+11.6%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+5.2%ordinary: −1.1%

Ahead after costs67%ordinary: 45%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
12 Mar 2025	$0.02434	−2.4%	+11.6%	−9.2%
9 Jun 2024	$0.03191	−2.6%	−7.6%	−19.8%
30 May 2023	$0.02086	−2.5%	−9.5%	−10.1%
31 Dec 2021	$0.08267	+4.7%	−4.9%	−36.4%
28 Sep 2021	$0.08173	+3.6%	+38.8%	+59.1%
19 Jul 2021	$0.06180	−6.6%	+25.5%	+93.4%
6 Nov 2020	$0.01120	−7.3%	+5.5%	+53.1%
28 Mar 2020	$0.00297	−8.4%	+9.3%	+46.7%
16 Aug 2019	$0.00449	−0.9%	+2.2%	−17.3%

The 12 most recent. All 9 are in the open data file.

The rule

50-day moving average closes below the 200-day moving average after being above it. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bearish signals in any market.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

Other VeChain signals

RSI rises above 70Strong evidence · 39 cases Breakout to a 90-day highStrong evidence · 34 cases Five green days in a rowWeak evidence · 33 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 50 cases Five red days in a rowWeak evidence · 38 cases

Full VeChain record

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