Stellar · XLM/USDT · daily
What happens to Stellar after a death cross?
Since 2018, Stellar has shown a death cross 11 times. In the 11 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 55% of the time, with a median move of +1.0%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for XLM is −1.1%.
No better than chance11
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 85% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 11 | 36% | −0.7% | −3.7% to +0.5% | 0.0% | −0.7% | 75% | 36 |
| 3 days | 11 | 45% | −0.3% | −1.7% to +0.9% | −0.5% | +0.2% | 98% | 6 |
| 7 days | 11 | 55% | +1.0% | −5.9% to +2.6% | −1.1% | +2.1% | 85% | 11 |
| 14 days | 11 | 45% | −3.0% | −10.6% to +14.0% | −2.6% | −0.4% | 98% | 6 |
| 30 days | 11 | 55% | +3.4% | −9.7% to +12.4% | −3.3% | +6.7% | 85% | 38 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of XLM over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 49%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 6 the gap over 7 days was −0.8%, and in the later 5 it was +2.1%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | $0.1746 | +2.1% | +5.0% | +12.7% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | $0.3005 | −6.2% | −17.8% | −16.8% |
| 7 Apr 2025 | $0.2322 | −4.7% | +3.3% | +12.1% |
| 7 May 2024 | $0.1081 | −0.7% | −5.8% | −2.6% |
| 23 Jan 2024 | $0.1116 | +0.9% | +1.0% | +3.4% |
| 17 Jun 2023 | $0.07970 | −0.3% | +13.4% | +62.0% |
| 28 Dec 2021 | $0.2740 | −2.6% | +1.9% | −29.2% |
| 1 Jul 2021 | $0.2689 | −2.2% | −9.7% | +5.7% |
| 19 Oct 2020 | $0.08520 | −5.2% | −4.9% | −1.8% |
| 24 Mar 2020 | $0.04031 | +0.5% | +1.0% | +54.0% |
| 30 Jul 2019 | $0.08341 | +0.5% | −6.0% | −26.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.
The rule
50-day moving average closes below the 200-day moving average after being above it. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bearish signals in any market.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
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