What happens to XRP after a death cross?

Since 2018, XRP has shown a death cross 11 times. In the 11 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 55% of the time, with a median move of +0.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for XRP is −0.8%.

No better than chance10

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 88% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 201811last on 8 Nov 2025

Higher after 7 days55%ordinary: 46%

Median 7-day move+0.9%ordinary: −0.8%

Could be luck88%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−8% / +41%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary XRP drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	11	64%	+0.4%	−1.6% to +3.0%	0.0%	+0.5%	80%	34
3 days	11	73%	+4.5%	+0.1% to +5.4%	−0.3%	+4.8%	17%	61
7 days	11	55%	+0.9%	−2.9% to +4.1%	−0.8%	+1.7%	88%	10
14 days	11	36%	−2.1%	−6.2% to +10.4%	−1.6%	−0.5%	98%	6
30 days	11	64%	+12.3%	−6.3% to +18.1%	−2.4%	+14.6%	45%	45

“Ordinary median” is the median move of XRP over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 56%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−4.7%ordinary XRP: −6.5%

1 case in 4 dipped past−5.9%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way18%ordinary: 32%

Typical best point+6.4%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+0.6%ordinary: −1.1%

Ahead after costs55%ordinary: 45%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 6 the gap over 7 days was +2.9%, and in the later 5 it was −0.4%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
8 Nov 2025	$2.29	+3.5%	−2.1%	−9.4%
18 May 2025	$2.43	−2.0%	−3.6%	−11.1%
30 Apr 2024	$0.5006	+3.4%	+4.8%	+3.6%
30 Jan 2024	$0.5107	−1.4%	−1.1%	+14.9%
30 Sep 2023	$0.5149	+1.8%	+1.3%	+12.3%
24 Dec 2022	$0.3517	−1.7%	−3.6%	+20.4%
31 Dec 2021	$0.8297	+2.5%	−8.0%	−27.5%
18 Jul 2021	$0.5866	−5.0%	+3.5%	+87.1%
7 Feb 2021	$0.4185	+7.8%	+41.5%	+15.9%
17 Mar 2020	$0.1469	+0.4%	+10.4%	+29.7%
14 Aug 2019	$0.2635	+0.1%	+0.9%	−3.2%

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

50-day moving average closes below the 200-day moving average after being above it. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bearish signals in any market.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

Other XRP signals

15% drop in 7 daysStrong evidence · 58 cases Volume spike on a red dayStrong evidence · 26 cases 30% drop in 30 daysSome evidence · 37 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 42 cases 50% rise in 30 daysWeak evidence · 38 cases 10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 57 cases

Full XRP record

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