Arbitrum signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ARB candle since 23 Mar 2023 (1,333 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ARB price · last close$0.128114 Nov 2026 close: $0.1281 (7d −24.3%)
RSI (14)31.1between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.77×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume48.5%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−95%above the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 16 | 19% | −8.4% | −1.7% | 37% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 20 | 65% | +4.1% | −1.7% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence | 12 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 31 | 55% | +0.9% | −1.7% | 71% | 46 | Weak evidence | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 16 | 56% | +3.5% | −1.7% | 51% | 44 | Weak evidence | 11 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 22 | 55% | +0.8% | −1.7% | 78% | 41 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 12 | 75% | +3.1% | −1.7% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 18 | 50% | +0.7% | −1.7% | 82% | 39 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 31 | 55% | +1.0% | −1.7% | 70% | 21 | No better than chance | 15 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 30 | 30% | −3.3% | −1.7% | 87% | 18 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 21 | 43% | −4.8% | −1.7% | 71% | 17 | No better than chance | 11 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 17 | 53% | +2.5% | −1.7% | 63% | 17 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 13 | 46% | −6.5% | −1.7% | 63% | 16 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 17 | 53% | +1.1% | −1.7% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 16 | 38% | −3.3% | −1.7% | 91% | 11 | No better than chance | 24 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 8 | 63% | +2.6% | −1.7% | 33% | Too few cases | 4 Sep 2026 | |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 7 | 43% | −3.2% | −1.7% | 76% | Too few cases | 7 Sep 2026 | |
| Golden cross | 4 | 50% | +5.8% | −1.7% | 23% | Too few cases | 14 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 3 | 67% | +0.2% | −1.7% | 77% | Too few cases | 31 Oct 2025 | |
| Volatility squeeze | 8 | 38% | −6.3% | −1.7% | 29% | Too few cases | 11 Aug 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% drop in a day | 52 | 38% | −4.1% | −1.7% | 67% | 50 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 56 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.7% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 80 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.7% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 56 | 48% | −0.4% | −1.7% | 83% | 48 | Weak evidence | 15 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 35 | 51% | +0.2% | −1.7% | 79% | 46 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 51 | 39% | −1.5% | −1.7% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 24 | 50% | +0.7% | −1.7% | 78% | 42 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 11 | 64% | +3.7% | −1.7% | 61% | 42 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 13 | 54% | +0.8% | −1.7% | 85% | 37 | Weak evidence | 7 Jun 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 10 | 60% | +4.9% | −1.7% | 53% | 28 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 43 | 56% | +1.4% | −1.7% | 55% | 26 | No better than chance | 12 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 79 | 43% | −3.0% | −1.7% | 80% | 23 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 16 | 56% | +3.3% | −1.7% | 53% | 18 | No better than chance | 16 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 27 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 100% | 14 | No better than chance | 24 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 15 | 47% | −3.5% | −1.7% | 91% | 11 | No better than chance | 30 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 7 | 57% | +2.5% | −1.7% | 39% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 9 | 56% | +2.5% | −1.7% | 33% | Too few cases | 9 Sep 2026 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 5 | 100% | +15.0% | −1.7% | 1.4% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 1 | 100% | +3.7% | −1.7% | – | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 3 | 33% | −0.9% | −1.7% | 90% | Too few cases | 18 Sep 2026 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 6 | 17% | −7.5% | −1.7% | 26% | Too few cases | 29 Sep 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 30 | 57% | +2.1% | −1.7% | 52% | 48 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 21 | 38% | −4.3% | −1.7% | 79% | 41 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 1 | 100% | +3.7% | −1.7% | – | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 4 | 50% | +2.9% | −1.7% | 44% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.1518 | open |
| 10 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.1607 | open |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1566 | −3.6% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.1543 | +1.5% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.