What happens to Arbitrum after a 7% drop in a day?

Since 2023, Arbitrum has shown a 7% drop in a day 55 times. In the 52 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 38% of the time, with a median move of −4.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ARB is −1.7%.

Weak evidence50

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 67% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 202355last on 10 Nov 2026

Higher after 7 days38%ordinary: 43%

Median 7-day move−4.1%ordinary: −1.7%

Could be luck67%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−32% / +29%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary ARB drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 52 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	53	49%	−0.1%	−3.4% to +2.3%	−0.2%	0.0%	98%	20
3 days	53	51%	+0.1%	−5.7% to +3.8%	−0.9%	+0.9%	66%	48
7 days	52	38%	−4.1%	−8.8% to +2.8%	−1.7%	−2.3%	67%	50
14 days	52	44%	−5.6%	−15.2% to +4.6%	−4.1%	−1.6%	91%	22
30 days	51	35%	−8.4%	−21.1% to +9.4%	−6.4%	−1.9%	95%	22

“Ordinary median” is the median move of ARB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 22%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−10.1%ordinary ARB: −8.5%

1 case in 4 dipped past−18.6%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way50%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+8.2%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−4.4%ordinary: −2.0%

Ahead after costs37%ordinary: 42%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 31 the gap over 7 days was −2.1%, and in the later 21 it was −2.5%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
10 Nov 2026	$0.1607	−5.5%	open	open
29 Oct 2026	$0.1543	+5.7%	+1.5%	open
8 Oct 2026	$0.1727	+5.8%	+13.3%	−2.0%
23 Sep 2026	$0.2160	+0.3%	−6.1%	−20.5%
7 Sep 2026	$0.1694	−2.6%	−21.1%	+9.7%
12 Aug 2026	$0.07410	+1.6%	+20.8%	+88.3%
27 Jul 2026	$0.07710	+2.5%	+7.3%	+20.4%
2 Jun 2026	$0.09290	+0.1%	−13.6%	−16.8%
19 Feb 2026	$0.09800	−1.0%	+2.1%	−1.7%
5 Feb 2026	$0.1077	+11.7%	+3.7%	−10.1%
29 Jan 2026	$0.1584	−2.0%	−32.0%	−37.1%
17 Dec 2025	$0.1848	−4.8%	+1.6%	+13.5%

The 12 most recent. All 55 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 7% below the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Prom	52	62%	+3.5%	+3.7%	Strong evidence · leans up
Beam	53	34%	−7.2%	−6.7%	Some evidence · leans down
Request	58	45%	−3.4%	−2.9%	Some evidence · leans down
Cyber	57	40%	−6.0%	−4.0%	Weak evidence
Stellar	97	54%	+1.5%	+2.6%	Weak evidence
Pepe	66	29%	−5.6%	−4.2%	Weak evidence
Quant	55	53%	+1.1%	+2.4%	Weak evidence
Arkham	64	34%	−6.1%	−3.5%	Weak evidence

7% drop in a day across all 94 coins

Other Arbitrum signals

10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 56 cases 5% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 80 cases 7% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 56 cases Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 30 cases 20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 20 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 31 cases

Full Arbitrum record

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