Arbitrum · ARB/USDT · daily
What happens to Arbitrum after a volume spike on a red day?
Since 2023, Arbitrum has shown a volume spike on a red day 8 times. In the 8 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 63% of the time, with a median move of +2.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ARB is −1.7%.
Too few cases
With 8 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 8 | 63% | +0.9% | −3.3% to +4.4% | −0.2% | +1.1% | 47% | |
| 3 days | 8 | 63% | +4.4% | −1.3% to +16.6% | −0.9% | +5.3% | 7.8% | |
| 7 days | 8 | 63% | +2.6% | −3.6% to +6.8% | −1.7% | +4.3% | 33% | |
| 14 days | 8 | 63% | +10.1% | −13.9% to +22.0% | −4.1% | +14.2% | 4.5% | |
| 30 days | 8 | 63% | +2.1% | −12.6% to +28.9% | −6.4% | +8.5% | 40% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ARB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 33%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | $0.1319 | +34.3% | +5.8% | +54.7% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.2962 | +1.9% | +2.5% | +1.0% |
| 30 Jun 2025 | $0.3453 | −5.2% | −4.8% | +20.3% |
| 11 May 2025 | $0.4515 | −4.7% | −12.5% | −8.2% |
| 19 Jan 2025 | $0.6982 | 0.0% | −3.2% | −34.1% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | $0.6300 | −2.9% | +9.8% | +63.1% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | $0.4818 | +4.3% | +22.3% | +3.2% |
| 5 Mar 2024 | $1.97 | +4.5% | +2.6% | −25.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 8 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily volume at least 3× its previous 30-day average, and the day closes below its open. A surge of volume on a down day is read two opposite ways: as panic that marks a low, or as distribution before more selling.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Harmony | 25 | 68% | +11.6% | +12.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 XRP | 26 | 58% | +5.2% | +5.9% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Theta Network | 22 | 64% | +9.1% | +9.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin | 20 | 60% | +5.1% | +4.7% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Neo | 40 | 33% | −5.2% | −4.6% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Ethereum Classic | 37 | 54% | +1.7% | +2.7% | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 24 | 29% | −6.8% | −6.1% | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 33 | 61% | +3.1% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
Volume spike on a red day across all 94 coins
Other Arbitrum signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals