Arbitrum · ARB/USDT · daily
What happens to Arbitrum after a breakout to a 90-day high?
Since 2023, Arbitrum has shown a breakout to a 90-day high 13 times. In the 13 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 46% of the time, with a median move of −6.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ARB is −1.7%.
No better than chance16
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 63% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | 46% | −0.1% | −5.3% to +1.8% | −0.2% | +0.1% | 98% | 7 |
| 3 days | 13 | 38% | −2.2% | −4.6% to +2.1% | −0.9% | −1.4% | 80% | 11 |
| 7 days | 13 | 46% | −6.5% | −10.8% to +6.4% | −1.7% | −4.8% | 63% | 16 |
| 14 days | 13 | 46% | −2.3% | −15.7% to +33.9% | −4.1% | +1.7% | 96% | 9 |
| 30 days | 13 | 38% | −5.7% | −15.5% to +28.0% | −6.4% | +0.7% | 98% | 7 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ARB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 18%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was +6.7%, and in the later 6 it was −6.6%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | $0.2212 | −6.8% | +2.5% | −15.5% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | $0.1104 | +12.4% | +49.5% | +81.1% |
| 8 May 2026 | $0.1426 | −0.1% | −12.5% | −41.7% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | $0.5867 | +4.5% | −16.3% | −18.1% |
| 13 Aug 2025 | $0.5712 | −9.6% | −10.1% | −4.1% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | $1.03 | +1.8% | −6.5% | −27.3% |
| 23 Nov 2024 | $0.8554 | +0.8% | +13.5% | −6.4% |
| 16 Nov 2024 | $0.7251 | −7.0% | +18.0% | +38.3% |
| 10 Jan 2024 | $2.23 | +1.4% | −8.5% | −11.1% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | $1.73 | +2.1% | +5.0% | +1.7% |
| 22 Dec 2023 | $1.42 | −1.8% | +6.4% | +28.0% |
| 12 Dec 2023 | $1.25 | −5.3% | −14.3% | +80.4% |
The 12 most recent. All 13 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close above the highest high of the previous 90 days. A close above three months of highs is a standard trend-following entry.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeChain | 34 | 65% | +7.8% | +8.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 32 | 66% | +8.7% | +9.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Solana | 28 | 75% | +10.2% | +10.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Algorand | 23 | 65% | +11.4% | +12.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Fetch.ai | 32 | 69% | +9.5% | +10.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Theta Network | 20 | 75% | +15.2% | +15.8% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin Cash | 26 | 27% | −6.1% | −5.9% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Hedera | 23 | 57% | +9.0% | +10.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
Breakout to a 90-day high across all 94 coins
Other Arbitrum signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals