Arbitrum · ARB/USDT · daily
What happens to Arbitrum after a volume spike on a green day?
Since 2023, Arbitrum has shown a volume spike on a green day 18 times. In the 18 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of +0.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ARB is −1.7%.
Weak evidence39
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 82% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 18 | 44% | −2.4% | −6.7% to +2.3% | −0.2% | −2.2% | 16% | 40 |
| 3 days | 18 | 39% | −4.1% | −7.8% to +2.0% | −0.9% | −3.2% | 40% | 19 |
| 7 days | 18 | 50% | +0.7% | −9.5% to +6.0% | −1.7% | +2.5% | 82% | 39 |
| 14 days | 18 | 39% | −3.4% | −14.7% to +16.8% | −4.1% | +0.7% | 98% | 10 |
| 30 days | 18 | 33% | −6.8% | −17.4% to +17.1% | −6.4% | −0.4% | 99% | 9 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ARB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 43%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 10 the gap over 7 days was +4.1%, and in the later 8 it was +2.4%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | $0.2212 | −6.8% | +2.5% | −15.5% |
| 31 Aug 2026 | $0.1094 | +0.9% | +54.8% | +85.5% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | $0.08950 | +1.6% | +3.7% | +147.2% |
| 9 Jul 2026 | $0.08750 | +6.3% | +1.7% | −10.5% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | $0.1290 | +1.8% | −0.4% | −7.4% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | $0.5867 | +4.5% | −16.3% | −18.1% |
| 13 Aug 2025 | $0.5712 | −9.6% | −10.1% | −4.1% |
| 18 Jul 2025 | $0.4524 | +2.7% | −2.1% | +18.5% |
| 10 May 2025 | $0.4842 | −6.8% | −22.4% | −23.8% |
| 3 Feb 2025 | $0.5109 | −6.6% | −7.6% | −18.8% |
| 25 Nov 2024 | $0.9053 | −3.9% | +13.4% | −11.0% |
| 16 Nov 2024 | $0.7251 | −7.0% | +18.0% | +38.3% |
The 12 most recent. All 18 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily volume at least 3× its previous 30-day average, and the day closes above its open. A surge of volume on an up day is usually read as fresh demand arriving, and as a sign that the move has backing.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Radworks | 54 | 30% | −4.7% | −3.9% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Cardano | 38 | 63% | +4.6% | +5.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Ethereum | 25 | 64% | +6.3% | +6.0% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Request | 46 | 33% | −3.8% | −3.4% | Some evidence · leans down |
 THORChain | 26 | 62% | +9.7% | +10.1% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Solana | 25 | 64% | +7.9% | +8.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin | 22 | 86% | +4.8% | +4.3% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Immutable | 30 | 63% | +5.1% | +6.8% | Some evidence · leans up |
Volume spike on a green day across all 94 coins
Other Arbitrum signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals